Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Aerial view of the site of an Israeli-Hamas prisoner-hostage swap in Gaza in January 2025 - source: Reuters

The Path to a Transformed Middle East: How to Keep the Peace in Gaza While Countering Iran

Very close allied coordination will be needed to strike the right balance between pursuing viable nuclear diplomacy and giving Israel the weapons and support it needs to use force against Iran if necessary.

Feb 3, 2025

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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky

Cover for Iran Transition Note, with images of a pen with U.S. flag, a B-52 bomber, nuclear symbols, and Iranian flag + map.

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Policy Steps to Prevent a Nuclear Iran

Rather than choosing between diplomacy and military action, the Trump administration should think of these options as mutually supportive, sequencing its actions in hopes of achieving the best and least costly outcome.

Jan 28, 2025

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Michael Singh

◆ Transition Notes 2025

Articles & Testimony

How Trump Can Remake the Middle East

If he uses his major regional leverage to curtail the Iranian nuclear threat and end the Gaza war, he will be well-placed to resume other important tasks that have been sitting on the back burner—including Israeli-Saudi normalization.

Jan 16, 2025

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Dennis Ross

Brief Analysis

Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy

The regime’s fears of new oil restrictions, simmering domestic unrest, eroding regional deterrence, and unpredictable U.S.-Israeli military action can all be leveraged to steer Khamenei away from racing toward a nuclear weapon.

Jan 13, 2025

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Hamdi Malik

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A Last Chance for Iran

The Trump administration should give nuclear diplomacy a final shot—while preparing to use military force.

Jan 2, 2025

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Richard Nephew

Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A Fateful Debate in Tehran

After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.

Dec 30, 2024

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Ehud Yaari

Brief Analysis

Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Dec 23, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi

An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Two “Axes” Converging in Iran

Iran’s Middle East “axis of resistance” and the Eurasian axis it shares with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly challenging the global and regional order, highlighting the need for more partnerships and a comprehensive counterstrategy with special efforts focusing on Tehran.

Dec 23, 2024

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Assaf Orion

Articles & Testimony

Will Stability Rise from the Middle East Rubble?

Though it may seem counterintuitive, the Middle East stands a decent chance of becoming more stable in the coming year if Trump takes advantage of Iran’s weakness to broker good deals.

Dec 16, 2024

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Dennis Ross

Security forces the Iraqi-Syrian border, after it has been reopened for trade and travel, in Al Qaim, Iraq in 2019 - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Nujaba Projects Paranoia Over Domestic Security

Nujaba's immediate allergic reaction to regime change in Syria is a bellwether of how vulnerable Coordination Framework militias feel as pro-Iran hierarchies come tumbling down.

Dec 16, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Ameer al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut

Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.

Dec 12, 2024

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?

From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.

Dec 11, 2024

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Zohar Palti

Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s New Presidency

Policymakers would be wise to view Pezeshkian’s rise not as a development that will change Iran, but as a reflection of a regime that is struggling to stave off domestic troubles.

Dec 10, 2024

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Michael Singh

Fikra Forum

The Ideological Constraints of the Islamic Republic

As long as the Islamic Republic’s decisions are dictated by rigid ideological imperatives, any shift in Tehran toward pragmatism in response to the new Trump Administration will likely be superficial at best.

Dec 6, 2024

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Masoud Zamani

Brief Analysis

Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure

The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.

Dec 4, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Book cover with Iranian missiles, including Shahab-3

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

If Iran Gets the Bomb:

Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy

The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.

Nov 25, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran

Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.

Nov 21, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi
James E. Shepard

Articles & Testimony

3 Unanswered Questions That Will Shape Trump’s Middle East Policy

The nascent administration needs to clarify its stances on preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout, investing in Arab-Israel military cooperation, and responding to potential West Bank annexations.

Nov 16, 2024

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Robert Satloff

Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945

Brief Analysis

With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?

Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.

Nov 15, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy

The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.

Nov 14, 2024

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Richard Nephew

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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