Israel's fears about a nuclear Iran are well known. But Arabs have their own fears, too. After centuries of religious and political rivalry, Arab relations with Iran are marked by deep mutual mistrust. Since the end of the Cold War, Iran's sense of security has itself been in constant flux, fueling a belief among Arab regimes that Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a pretext to develop military nuclear capability. Fearing that a nuclear-armed Iran would gain influence at their expense and challenge the existing order in the region, many Arab governments are voicing deep concern, and their response to this rising threat raises critical questions for U.S. policymakers.
- If Iran succeeds in becoming a military nuclear power, how would the Arab regimes react?
- Would a nuclear-armed Iran undermine the Arab leadership and tip the balance of power in the Middle East?
- Could nuclear weapons provide Tehran with more leverage against the United States at the expense of the Arab states?
- Would a nuclear-armed Iran lead to further proliferation in the region and possibly to the erosion of the nonproliferation regime?
- What are appropriate measures that Arab states could take to avoid such an escalation?
This pathbreaking study by one of the leading Arab experts on proliferation explores the range of options available to Arab governments to counter a nuclear-armed Iran and the factors that would influence their decisions.
THE AUTHOR
Tariq Khaitous is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute. Formerly a postdoctoral fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, he led research on nuclear proliferation and security issues in the Middle East and North Africa. Dr. Khaitous has also served at the UN headquarters in New York, where he was attached to the Department of Disarmament Affairs, and at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris. Dr. Khaitous's work has appeared in such influential outlets as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and Confluences Mediterranee (France). He has also published numerous editorials for the premier daily Moroccan newspaper, Le Matin, on international relations and nuclear issues.
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40 pages