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While conventional wisdom has identified the Sunni triangle as the most conflict-prone part of Iraq, the decisive battlefield for the country's political future is instead likely to take place in the Shia south. This region is already the scene of low-profile and longstanding struggles for political and theocratic authority. In broad terms, such conflicts concern the centralisation of political power, the autonomy of tribes and regions and the role of clerical jurisprudence and Sharia law in Iraqi society. Competition in parliamentary and provincial assemblies has added a new layer to this struggle....
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Jane's Intelligence Review