All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson

The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.

Poor internal communications and miscalculation could lead Tehran to continue the cycle by striking again soon, whether directly or through its Iraqi proxies.

Three experts discuss the domestic and foreign implications of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential election victory—including the need to temper any expectations that he is able or willing to pursue substantial change.

Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.

Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.

Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.

Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.

As in past elections, the contest to determine a replacement for the late President Raisi will be less about the people’s choice and more about what direction the Supreme Leader wants the Islamic Republic to go.

The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.

The October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel represent a turning point that should bring home oft-overlooked realities about the Middle East and compel U.S. policymakers to rethink preconceptions about the region and America's role and interests in it.

A recently leaked document—if genuine—may indicate substantial internal skepticism toward the regime’s handling of the current domestic crisis, and perhaps even pressure for limited reforms.

The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Watch an expert panel discussion of the political, diplomatic, economic, social, and strategic implications of the 2022 World Cup for Qatar and the wider Middle East.

A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.

The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.

Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.

Mass support for reformists has disappeared among Iran’s severely disenchanted electorate, leaving Hemmati and his circle with little means of avoiding dismal turnout and vote tallies.

Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?

Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.