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All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson
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Brief Analysis
Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests
The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.
Mar 16, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims
The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.
Mar 10, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics
Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.
Mar 9, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.
Mar 4, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet
Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.
Feb 26, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Feb 19, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Jan 29, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Trump Peace Plan Attracts Some Gulf States, But Not Consensus Backing
Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE have evidently decided that good relations with the White House are more important than echoing Palestinian anger or appeasing Iran.
Jan 29, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Death of a Sultan: Oman Matters, So Why Such a Slow U.S. Response?
Regional players will likely be testing Muscat in the next few months, so Washington needs to help ensure continuity between reigns.
Jan 14, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Iran May Want Revenge for Soleimani, But It May Need Restraint Instead
The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.
Jan 4, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field
Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.
Dec 31, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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Simon Henderson
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Sentences in Khashoggi Murder Will Again Test U.S. Relations
The challenge for the kingdom’s Western allies is how to square Riyadh’s announcement with the CIA and UN conclusion that the crown prince himself sanctioned the crime.
Dec 23, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles—First in Syria, and Now in Libya
New maritime and military agreements may pull Ankara into Libya’s civil war, adding yet another foreign actor to an already tortuous multilateral showdown.
Dec 16, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Dec 9, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Qatar Rift Overshadows Riyadh Summit
Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.
Dec 9, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Meetings May Provide Economic Answers—or Just More Questions
Amid Saudi stock sell-offs, Russian production limits, U.S. tariff showdowns, and a flurry of other factors, the potential impact of the cartel’s Vienna meetings is difficult to predict.
Dec 4, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Bahrain After the Prime Minister
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Bahrain’s prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, has held his position since 1971, the year his country gained independence from Britain, but he is now eighty-four and evidently in uncertain health. Potential candidates to replace him include Crown Prince Salman or even a much younger nephew, Nasser bin Hamad, mirroring the generational handover in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the Khawalids, an influential, once-sidelined branch of the ruling family, also merit attention as Bahrain nears the end of an era.
Nov 26, 2019
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Simon Henderson
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Israeli Gas Export Route to Egypt Finalized
The two countries still need to resolve longer-term questions about international export options and energy contracts with Jordan, but the latest step toward reopening the pipeline is encouraging.
Nov 13, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Recalling the Hostage Crisis That Made Iran Forever Hostile to the U.S.
A former correspondent in Tehran reflects on how the crisis set the stage for many of Washington’s current difficulties with the regime, and whether anything has really changed.
Nov 5, 2019
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Simon Henderson
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