All Policy Analysis by Henry Rome

The deal gives Tehran access to frozen funds for humanitarian purposes, likely paving the way for resumed nuclear talks this fall as both sides try to lower tensions.

New data-rich graphics strikingly illustrate the growth in Tehran’s oil revenue and China’s outsize role in fueling this trend.

Tehran may argue that its 2020 nuclear law constrains its room for maneuver in any future talks, but its compliance with that law has long been spotty, and officials seem more focused on ensuring that any concessions they make are reversible.

Facing the imminent expiration of UN sanctions but unwilling to trigger “snapback,” the EU and Britain should unilaterally extend some of their own restrictions on Tehran.

A close analysis suggests the United States must adopt a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.

The administration is essentially trying to kick the can down the road in order to avoid worse scenarios, but this approach may backfire without firmer steps to slow Iran’s nuclear progress in the meantime.

Years of quiet and fairly lucrative oil trading between the Kurds and Israel are now being threatened by messy legal disputes involving Baghdad and Turkey.

Top commanders have purportedly raised a slew of concerns with the Supreme Leader, from funding shortfalls to corruption among regime elites.

The West is in the middle of a steadily escalating nuclear crisis, even if policymakers are reluctant to admit it.

China brokered the agreement, but this does not signal a new Beijing-led order in the Middle East—in fact, it could make regional tensions worse.

The rial keeps plummeting, but policymakers should not assume this will spur Tehran to scale back its nuclear negotiating demands.

The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.

The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs.

To foster doubts about the wisdom of deepening the relationship, Washington should stoke longstanding Iranian skepticism toward Russia and work with Europe to sanction additional entities involved in the drone program.

Several countries have rapidly imposed new sanctions in response to the regime’s repression of peaceful protests, but they should do more to harmonize and expand these actions.

Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.

Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime—and a potential target for increased economic pressure.

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.