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All Policy Analysis by Erik Yavorsky
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Brief Analysis
A Year of Suwayda Protests Show That Assad Is No Partner
The regime’s increasing violence against a once-loyal Druze minority is yet another reminder that “normalizing” relations with Assad will never yield the stability neighboring states crave.
Aug 16, 2024
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Erik Yavorsky
Brief Analysis
Demise of Syria’s “Second Lady” Shakes Up the Assad Regime
Although separating fact from fiction inside the Assad regime is often difficult, Luna al-Shibl’s death is likely a harbinger of further internal changes at a sensitive international juncture.
Jul 15, 2024
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Erik Yavorsky
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Syria’s New Protests Highlight Vulnerabilities in Assad’s Minority Base
Growing unrest in Suwayda and other traditionally loyal areas may help force Assad’s hand on longstanding local, U.S., and allied demands.
Sep 8, 2023
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Erik Yavorsky
Brief Analysis
Algeria-Russia Relations After the Ukraine Invasion
The North African country has maintained a close rapport with its traditional security partner, but a perpetual desire for balance and autonomy could offer opportunities for Western countries, including the United States.
May 18, 2023
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Sabina Henneberg
Grant Rumley
Erik Yavorsky
Brief Analysis
Lebanese Social Media Reactions to Rocket Strikes on Israel
A sampling of posts suggests fears of another catastrophic war, increased public questioning of Hezbollah as a “resistance” movement, and anger toward its cooperation with Iran in compromising Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Apr 7, 2023
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Erik Yavorsky
Faris Almaari
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Disaster Dynamics:
Assessing Middle East Responses to the Turkey-Syria Earthquake and Other Destructive Events
Regional generosity was on display after the February 6 temblor, but aid decisions do appear to be driven by political considerations.
Mar 3, 2023
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Sarah Cahn
Erik Yavorsky
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How the Popular Mobilization Forces Exploited Syria's Earthquake
Now that Iraqi PMF groups can deploy to Syria with Baghdad's formal authorization, many cross-border militant activities may accelerate under the cover of earthquake relief.
Feb 27, 2023
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Erik Yavorsky
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi’s Visit to Moscow and Its Aftermath
Russia now feels emboldened to openly host Iraqi "resistance" leaders with no government role—including designated terrorists—to discuss their shared interest in confronting the West and working together in Syria and Iraq.
Jan 27, 2023
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Erik Yavorsky
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
To Ease Syria’s Energy Crisis, Assad Must Return to the Negotiating Table
Washington can help alleviate the country's fuel crisis, but only if Damascus and Moscow agree to extend the cross-border aid mechanism and resume progress toward a final political settlement.
Dec 22, 2022
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Andrew J. Tabler
Erik Yavorsky
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammed Shia al-Sudani?
A closer look at the new prime minister’s political career, past affiliations, and key cabinet picks as he attempts to balance relations with pro-Iran groups and wary U.S. officials.
Nov 18, 2022
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May Kadow
Erik Yavorsky