All Policy Analysis by Nadav Ben Hour

Far from simply replaying the 2006 Lebanon war, the next conflict on Israel’s northern frontier will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, raising unprecedented challenges for escalation management.

Ending the cycle of violence will require not only tactical, strategic, and economic solutions, but also a host of ‘middle layer’ steps, from reducing military friction and establishing reliable channels of communication between the sides, to controlling the actions of other Gaza militant groups.

The 2014 conflict showed how escalatory dynamics can quickly lead two adversaries into full-blown fighting even when neither side actually wants a war.