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All Policy Analysis by Ali Alfoneh
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Brief Analysis
The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979
By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.
Jun 3, 2021
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
A closer look at the general’s service in Syria, his political and military connections, and his potential influence on how the Qods Force carries out future operations abroad.
Apr 20, 2021
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
The general’s background includes often-buried links to the pre-revolutionary MEK, along with a sobering record of transforming the Basij into a fine-tuned engine of domestic repression and organized vigilantism.
Jan 22, 2020
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
Given the IRGC’s recent restructuring, the Qods Force will likely see more continuity than change under Qaani, though his bureaucratic background is a far cry from Soleimani’s brand of charismatic, risky leadership.
Jan 7, 2020
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Ali Alfoneh
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC and Regional Conflict: Temperature Rising
The author of a landmark new book on the IRGC joins two Iran scholars for a lively conversation on how best to understand the force’s origins and exploit its weaknesses.
Dec 12, 2018
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Nader Uskowi
Ali Alfoneh
Alex Vatanka
Brief Analysis
Non-Iranian Shiites Paying the Price in Aleppo
The costly siege has spurred Iran to withdraw or relocate certain IRGC units, but this is unlikely to hurt the Assad coalition's strategy in Aleppo so long as Hezbollah and other Shiite militias remain willing to fight there.
Aug 31, 2016
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Morphs Into an Expeditionary Force
Funeral notices indicate that Iran has increased its use of IRGC Ground Forces in Syria to offset mounting losses by the elite Qods Force, and this pattern could signal a wider transformation in how the IRGC operates abroad.
May 12, 2016
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Iranian Casualties in Syria and the Strategic Logic of Intervention
Iran's battlefield losses have continued even after the drawdown of forces it surged into Syria late last year and the subsequent 'cessation of hostilities,' raising questions about Tehran's strategy and tactics in the war.
Mar 11, 2016
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Ali Alfoneh
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Fatalities in the Syrian War
Analysis of funeral reports and other open-source data offers potentially revealing insights into the militia's combat losses in Syria, its shifting role in the war next door, and the security of its position back home in Lebanon.
Feb 22, 2016
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Maximal Exposure, Minimal Presence: Iran's Military Engagement in Iraq
Funeral notices and other information on Iran's combat fatalities in Iraq provide a useful window into Tehran's military strategy there, especially compared to its differing approach in Syria.
Aug 25, 2015
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Shiite Combat Casualties Show the Depth of Iran's Involvement in Syria
In addition to Qods Force supervision of Shiite fighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries, the IRGC is deploying more of its own Ground Forces personnel to Syria in direct combat roles.
Aug 3, 2015
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
How to Assess Political Fissures in Iran
On February 5, 2010, David Cvach, Ali Alfoneh, and Mehdi Khalaji addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to discuss developments in Iran that may indicate either lost ground for reform-minded activists or cracks in the very foundation of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Cvach is political counselor
Feb 10, 2010
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Ali Alfoneh
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
The Basij Resistance Force:
A Weak Link in the Iranian Regime?
In the months since Iran's contested June 2009 presidential election, the Basij Resistance Force has emerged as one of the regime's main pillars of support against the democracy movement. In the long term, however, it is uncertain whether the militia is capable of prevailing in a prolonged fight against a
Feb 5, 2010
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Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
The Iranian Elections:
Politics of the Supreme Leader vs. Power of the President
On June 10, 2009, Ali Alfoneh, Meir Javedanfar, Mehdi Khalaji, and Patrick Clawson addressed a special Policy Forum at The Washington Institute to discuss what to expect from Iran's June 12 presidential election. Ali Alfoneh is a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute,Meir Javedanfar is a Middle East
Jun 12, 2009
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Ali Alfoneh
Mehdi Khalaji
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Renewal of Allegiance:
Presidential Elections in Iran
Large voter turnout for Iran's June 12 presidential election would be a double-edged sword for the country's hardline leader, Ali Khamenei. Although Khamenei would like to maximize participation in Iran's elections, which he sees as an affirmation of the regime's legitimacy, higher turnout would likely lead to a smaller share
Jun 10, 2009
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Ali Alfoneh