How Long Will Qais al-Khazali Hide in Iran?
Dec 24, 2024
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Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), is still hiding in Iran , and his movements (and those of his deputies back in Iraq) are worth watching closely.
Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), has been out of the picture for many weeks, prompting public rumors that has been killed or injured in a drone strike. In order to deny these rumors, the head of AAH officer in Tehran Ghadir Sharif told Baghdad Today on December 21, that “Khazali has been in the Islamic Republic of Iran for some time and settled for a period in the city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran, where the shrine of Imam Ali bin Musa al-Rida is located. After that, he moved to the city of Qom in central Iran to continue his individualized hawzai (seminary) studies”.
Khazali frequently visits the cities of Mashhad and Qom, which are considered holy for Shia Muslims, so there is nothing unusual about that. However, the unusual aspect lies in the statement by an AAH official, who claimed that Khazali’s stay in Iran was for religious studies. This is intriguing for two reasons. First, despite his frequent visits to Iran, this is likely the first time his presence there has been described as related to religious studies. Second, Khazali has worked hard in recent years to portray himself as an active, hands-on militia and political leader. For him to suddenly shift focus to hawza studies is quite unexpected.
Qais leaves, just as he is needed the most
Given the significant influence AAH holds within the Iraqi government, one would assume that Qais al-Khazali is an exceptionally busy individual. Indeed, he is usually highly active, engaging in frequent meetings with Iraqi and international actors, delivering speeches, and making numerous TV appearances. However, this changed in the recent months of the regional conflict, which began on October 7, as the so-called Axis of Resistance faced significant setbacks in late 2024.
The fact that Khazali appears to be reducing his presence in the Iraqi political sphere at a time when political parties are gradually preparing for the upcoming general elections, scheduled for October 2025, makes this move even more intriguing.
It is worth noting that, on December 23, 2024, AAH-affiliated social media accounts shared footage of Qais al-Khazali’s recent visit to the Iraqi city of Karbala, seemingly aimed at refuting rumors about his death (Figure 1). This indicates that he has been in Iraq recently but it does not mean he is still there, or that he has mainly been in Iraq in recently months. In all likelihood, Qais became fearful of an Israeli or American strike and sought protective refuge in Iran.
Looking ahead
Khazali’s move is reminiscent of Moqtada al-Sadr's decision in 2008 to relocate to Iran for “religious studies.” (In this case, and later in 2012, Moqtada was warned by the Iranians that he might be targeted (in 2008 by the Americans, in 2012 by AAH) and was offered sanctuary in Iran.) At that time, Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics, yet Moqtada returned from Iran on multiple occasions after breaks in Iran, and he played critical roles in both the 2018 and 2021 elections. Moqtada never studied for long enough to increase his clerical rank.
In our view, Khazali is also unlikely to step down from politics or significantly reduce his activities. However, his absence, coupled with subsequent media statements by AAH officials, points to unusual and intriguing developments within the world of Iraqi muqawama militias. Something is up: this is worth watching. In Qais’ absence, his brother Laith al-Khazali (also a U.S.-designated terrorist and a designated serious human rights abuser) will be the main power within AAH, alongside and probably in rivalry with long-time deputy leader of AAH, Mohammed al-Tabatabai. Monitoring how these two interact will also be worthwhile.
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