Iranian Military Developments and Trends

Apr 13, 2023
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Also published in Chatham House
Iranian military officers, including Major General Bagheri, tour an underground air base - source: Iranian government
About the Authors
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt

Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has three core components to its national security policy: its grey zone regional strategy; its unconventional force structure; and its nuclear hedging strategy. In the coming years, each of these will be influenced by: (i) lessons learned from more than four decades of experience, which have largely validated its national security approach; (ii) Iran’s nascent alliance of convenience with Russia; (iii) the policies of the ‘third Iranian republic’ that will emerge after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei becomes incapacitated or dies, and; (iv) the policies of the US and its partners and how these affect Tehran’s risk calculus...

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Iran