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Mohammed Shia al-Sudani portrayed non-intervention as a sovereign Iraqi decision but Iranian leaders give a different explanation.
Iranian and Iraqi narratives surrounding the events in Syria reveal clear contradictions, particularly regarding the role of the Iraqi muqawama militia in efforts to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime. High-ranking Iranian officials offered accounts which challenge Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s portrayal of events, asserting that external threats, rather than Sudani’s leadership, ultimately determined the extent of Iraq’s involvement in the conflict.
Sudani’s claim that he stopped PMF entry into Syria
This contradicts Sudani’s narrative, which he has upheld since the onset of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s operations to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. On December 4, 2024, just four days before Assad's fall, Sudani stated in the Iraqi parliament: “We are facing a new reality… This is not a declamatory matter. We cannot simply make a decision and send 45 million [Iraqi citizens] into the unknown.” Sudani was likely referring to the decision to authorize Iraqi militias to cross the border under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and join the war in Syria—an approach he described as “declamatory.”
In the late hours of December 2, 2024, an unnamed spokesperson for Kataib Hezbollah expressed the group's preference for this approach, stating: "We believe that the Iraqi government should... deploy official military forces in coordination with the Syrian government, given the threat these groups pose to Iraqi national security and the region" (Figure 1). When this didn't work, the Islamic Republic appeared to have tried to deploy Iraqi militias disregarding the Iraqi government's views.
The IRGC version: Conditions prevented the reinforcement of Assad
According to the Iranian regime’s account of events, Iran was prepared to use both Iraqi territory and Iraqi militias to intervene in Syria regardless of the Iraqi government's stance. This plan was ultimately thwarted not by Sudani’s decision, but by the threat of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, as well as the absence of adequate air support to enable these forces to enter Syria.
IRGC Brigadier General Behrooz Esbati, Commander of the Cyberspace Headquarters of the Armed Forces General Staff was deployed to Syria and was one of the last IRGC commanders to flee the country. In a speech delivered in Tehran to IRGC members, he appeared to be attempting to bolster the severely weakened morale of the regime's members and its core support base.
In his speech published on January 6, Esbati described the role assigned by the Iranian regime to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in intervening in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime. He stated:
[Iranian] commanders met with Bashar during the eight days between the fall of Aleppo and the fall of the regime. I asked one of our very high-ranking commanders who secretly met Bashar about their meeting. He said “[Bashar] had lost his mind. I told him the forces of al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) were ready [to enter the war]”. The Hashd forces were prepared to attack, but if they entered Syria, U.S. and Israeli planes would slaughter them. They needed air cover, and only the Russians could provide it. [The high-ranking commander] said, “I talked to Bashar for half an hour, and at the end, Bashar said, "You yourselves talk to the Russians."'"
Khamenei also cites lack of safe routes into Syria
A few weeks before Esbati’s speech, Ali Khamanei, the Iranian Supreme leader, talked about this problem of reinforcing Assad. He said “We were ready in these difficult circumstances. They [commanders] came here and told me that we had prepared all what the Syrians need today, that we were ready to go, [but] the skies were closed, the land routes was closed; the Zionist regime and the United States closed both the skies over Syria and the land routes; it was not possible”. Both the land and air routes that Khamenei refers to here pass through Iraq.
Sudani consistently emphasizes that, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, he holds the ultimate authority to make decisions regarding war and peace. However, more than a year of drone and missile strikes against U.S. bases and Israel by Iran-backed militias has demonstrated that Iran ultimately dictates Iraq's direction on these matters. The most recent manifestation of this reality can be seen in Iranian officials' accounts of the PMF's readiness to intervene in the Syrian conflict, despite Sudani's reluctance.
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