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The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran
Also published in Foreign Affairs
A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.
Last week, Iran and the United States briefly resumed indirect negotiations to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal. Unlike the previous round of talks in Vienna, which broke down in March, this round was hosted by Qatar and did not include representatives from most other parties to the original accord: China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Even though the talks ended without a breakthrough, the fact that Washington and Tehran agreed to this new format suggests a common interest in restoring the deal. To be sure, a common interest does not guarantee a renewed deal, as the absence of any progress in this latest round of talks indicates. Still, I believe an agreement is likely at some point, even if the hesitancy of each side to appear to concede anything more may mean one could take time to materialize...