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Articles & Testimony
Gaza War Shows Heightened Risk of Escalation in the Region
Although Washington and its partners have kept the war from spreading so far, the lack of clear rules on some fronts—particularly Syria—has created a dangerous environment in which any actor might inadvertently cross someone’s red lines.
Nov 17, 2023
◆
Andrew J. Tabler
Video
Brief Analysis
Iranian Escalation in Iraq and Syria: Implications and U.S. Options
Four experts discuss what Washington can do about the latest spike in militia attacks against U.S. bases and local partners—even as they try to sustain the counterterrorism mission against the Islamic State.
Nov 17, 2023
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Michael Knights
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Devorah Margolin
Andrew J. Tabler
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Civil Society and the Funding Crisis
Financial support for NGOs is a lifeline for their survival and sustainability. For its part, the Iraqi government should realize that a strong civil society benefits the government, as NGOs can be a vital contribution to governance efforts and societal support.
Nov 16, 2023
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Abdulsalam Medeni
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Jewish Extremist Violence in the West Bank Could Trigger a Second Front
The combination of highly motivated young extremists on the ground, supportive far-right politicians back home, and ineffective local security measures may stoke a full-scale uprising if authorities continue to look the other way.
Nov 16, 2023
◆
Neomi Neumann
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa Abu Fadl al-Abbas
One of the most well-established Iraqi volunteer militias to fight for Iran and the Assad regime, both in the Syrian civil war and during various anti-U.S. actions.
Nov 16, 2023
◆
Abdullah Hayek
◆
Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Articles & Testimony
Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Hierarchical Case-Control Approach
A study on who joins extremist and terrorist movements and why, offering new quantitative methods to approach the problem.
Nov 16, 2023
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Potentially Expanding Its Air Defense Axis in Lebanon and Syria
Tehran is seemingly redoubling its efforts to equip Hezbollah and other regional allies with advanced air defense systems, which could affect Israeli and U.S. calculations in the Gaza war and beyond.
Nov 15, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Israeli Offshore Gas Platform Near Gaza Resumes Production
The post-attack shutdown of the Tamar gas field had highlighted the vulnerability of Israel’s energy infrastructure.
Nov 15, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Polisario Attack on Smara: A Worrying Escalation for Morocco
The recent attack in Smara signifies a troubling departure from established conflict norms, with the Polisario Front's acknowledgment of responsibility for targeting civilians raising significant concerns for a paradigm shift in the conflict and signals an escalation of the already fragile situation in the region.
Nov 15, 2023
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Ahmad Sharawi
Mohsine El Ahmadi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The SDF’s Insurgency Challenge in Deir ez-Zor
The SDF’s current role in Deir ez-Zor and the local grievances surrounding it requires an understanding of the origin of its entry into the region, along with the underlying tension between U.S., Iranian, and Syrian regime interests there.
Nov 14, 2023
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Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Developing a Practical Model to Solve the Iraq-KRG Oil Crisis
Baghdad should allow Kurdistan based oil operators to invest in the rest of Iraq as a part of a solution to the long-standing oil issue between Erbil and Baghdad, using a proven, practical model currently being implemented.
Nov 9, 2023
◆
Yerevan Saeed
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hamas-Israel War: One Month On
Four experts and former officials discuss the evolving military operation against Hamas, the status of the Lebanon front, the political plight of Arab governments, and the steps Israel must consider to balance its goals with growing international pressure.
Nov 9, 2023
◆
Zohar Palti
Hanin Ghaddar
Ghaith al-Omari
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
ICCT Interview on Hamas
A conversation on the group’s strategic pivot, internal debates, hostage calculations, postwar prospects, and more.
Nov 8, 2023
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Devorah Margolin
Brief Analysis
Escalating Hamas Activity in the West Bank
Hamas began laying the groundwork for a West Bank uprising before October 7 and has steadily increased its activities there, demonstrating the risk it poses beyond Gaza.
Nov 7, 2023
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Camille Jablonski
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein
One of the largest Iraqi-Syrian militias, developed by Iran's IRGC-QF to support regime and proxy objectives in and around Syria.
Nov 7, 2023
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Abdullah Hayek
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Articles & Testimony
What Is Hamas’ Hostage Endgame?
The group seems intent on using its many remaining captives to increase international pressure on Israel and compel mass prisoner exchanges, though it may hesitate to take steps that would further harm its public image.
Nov 7, 2023
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Devorah Margolin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah and the Gaza Crisis (Part 1): Special Ops in the Lead
The group's earliest reactions to the war were led by its Special Operations wing under Abu Hussein and two spokesmen from his camp.
Nov 7, 2023
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Amir al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah and the Gaza Crisis (Part 2): Israel's Incursion, Khamenei-Nasrallah Speeches, and Blinken's Visit
Hossein Moanes and Abu Fadak have carefully calibrated their threats, showing a multifaceted yet tightly controlled Kataib Hezbollah response.
Nov 7, 2023
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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Relationship with Hamas and Putin’s Global Calculations
There is no evidence Moscow knew about the October 7 attack, but it has provided support to Hamas and is taking advantage of the resultant blows to U.S. interests.
Nov 6, 2023
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Examining Extremism Research Takedowns Online
A data-driven look at how research into terrorism and extremism is often hindered by tech companies with ill-suited content filters.
Nov 6, 2023
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
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