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Brief Analysis
The Ukraine Crisis and the Middle East
The Ukraine situation will affect Washington's Middle Eastern priorities, but not to such a degree that it will stymie a strong U.S. response to Russian actions, since America has the power to act in the region without Moscow if necessary. Ukraine could well make it necessary.
Mar 3, 2014
◆
James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
Libertarian Turkey
The rise of a middle class in Turkey has resulted in a society where rival political blocs and formerly violent factions are forced to coexist despite their enduring rancor.
Mar 3, 2014
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Obama the Pragmatist
The president's approach to recent crises shows an emphasis on the feasibility of successfully intervening, so he may yet decide to take action in Syria if his assessment of the stakes changes.
Mar 3, 2014
◆
Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
A Regional Approach to Iran
If the United States neglects the bigger regional picture and focuses solely on deal-making with Tehran, the result may be a tactical victory but a strategic defeat.
Mar 3, 2014
◆
Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
How Ukraine Will Shape the Future of the Middle East
By showing leadership in its response to the Russian intervention, Washington can open a new conversation with its regional allies regarding Syria, Iran, and Egypt.
Mar 2, 2014
◆
Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Makes Crises in Ukraine and Syria Worse by Not Planning for Them
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine serves as a reminder of something policymakers have learned and forgotten many times over: geopolitics is not dead yet.
Mar 2, 2014
◆
Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Implications of a Sisi Presidency
The military chief has some strong assets and likely staying power, but he will still face great pressure if he is elected as anticipated, since the benchmark for success will be his ability to satisfy an Egyptian polity filled with unrealistically high socioeconomic expectations.
Feb 28, 2014
◆
Adel El-Adawy
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu and Obama to Review Progress on Iran
Recent U.S. efforts to enforce sanctions and insist on strict interpretation of the Geneva agreement provide a backdrop for the two leaders' upcoming discussion of the Iran nuclear issue.
Feb 28, 2014
◆
Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Algeria's Presidential Elections amid the Bickering of a Polarized Regime
Abdelaziz Bouteflika's decision to run for a fourth term blocks a historic opportunity to achieve a safe and peaceful transition of leadership.
Feb 28, 2014
◆
Yacine Boudhane
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Debate: The Domestic Politics
Two Iran experts discuss how the Supreme Leader, other key officials, and the Iranian public view the ongoing negotiations with the West and the strategic purpose of the nuclear program itself.
Feb 26, 2014
◆
Nima Gerami
Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Leadership Reshuffle: PKK Makes Changes in Its Ranks
Changes in the leadership of the Kurdistan Workers Party suggest preparations for a return to a more hardline stance toward Turkey should the peace process between them break down. They also signal that the PKK is likely to take a more active military role in Syria, potentially in alliance with
Feb 26, 2014
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Coskun Unal
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Confronting the Changing Face of al-Qaeda Propaganda
The coordinator of the U.S. Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications describes how the "new normal" in global jihadist radicalization will require Washington and its allies to use public diplomacy as a major soft-power tool in countering violent extremism, both online and on the ground. Watch video or read his remarks.
Feb 25, 2014
◆
Alberto Fernandez
◆
Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
Clarifying the Security Arrangements Debate: Israeli Forces in the Jordan Valley
U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian negotiations could lower the heat and shed some light on the clash over Jordan Valley security arrangements by promoting a public debate grounded in the facts of current and prospective Israeli deployments.
Feb 24, 2014
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Robert Satloff
Video
Brief Analysis
Book Event: The Rise of Turkey at the Ralph J. Bunche Library
On January 27, 2014, Dr. Soner Cagaptay presented insights from his book, The Rise of Turkey, and discussed Turkey's future during a special event at the Ralph J. Bunche Library of the U.S. Department of State.
Feb 24, 2014
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Key to Pressuring Assad Is UNSCR 2118
By focusing on the Syrian regime's faltering commitment to eliminate its chemical weapons, Washington can decisively push Damascus and Russia toward real progress on larger issues -- and also set the table for limited military strikes if they prove necessary.
Feb 21, 2014
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia's Domestic and Foreign Intelligence Challenges
A fatal shootout involving security forces and Shiites coincides with a change in the kingdom's intelligence leadership.
Feb 21, 2014
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Ayatollah Khamenei: Pessimistic Negotiator, Optimistic Strategist
Despite offering nominal support for Iran's nuclear negotiating team, Khamenei and his circle continue to criticize the talks and could sabotage them outright if internal dynamics go against President Rouhani.
Feb 21, 2014
◆
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Salafism as a National Security Threat for Iran
Although Tehran worries about internal threats from Salafi jihadists, it may well cooperate with such groups if they attack Western interests.
Feb 20, 2014
◆
Mehdi Khalaji
In-Depth Reports
Leadership Divided?
The Domestic Politics of Iran's Nuclear Debate
Iran expert Nima Gerami examines the evolution of the country's domestic nuclear politics before and since Geneva, discussing how the underlying elite divisions and general culture of secrecy could complicate long-term efforts to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Feb 19, 2014
◆
Nima Gerami
Brief Analysis
Jordan Not Out of the Woods Yet
President Obama's reaffirmed pledges of assistance to Jordan are helpful, but they may not be enough to safeguard the country if the situation in Syria continues to fester.
Feb 19, 2014
◆
David Schenker
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