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Brief Analysis
Assad Must Be Forced to Allow Peaceful Assembly
Videos and reports from Syria over the past week show that Bashar al-Assad's forces continue to violate the ceasefire outlined by UN special representative Kofi Annan on April 12. The regime has neither ended its use of heavy weapons in population centers nor -- an additional obligation -- pulled back
Apr 18, 2012
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Assad Continues Violent Attacks on the Opposition
Data from one of the key Syrian opposition groups, the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), shows a persistent pattern of violent, armed regime actions against the people despite the ceasefire that supposedly went into force last week ( view the Syria Incident Database). The regime has effectively continued its struggle against
Apr 17, 2012
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Could the Gulf States Intervene in Syria?
The participation of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the Libyan conflict demonstrated the Gulf Cooperation Council's activism and capability. In recent months, therefore, speculation has focused on possible GCC intervention in the Syrian civil war. On February 27, Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told the Friends
Apr 17, 2012
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
A Crisis of Confidence
From failing European economies to staggering murder rates in Central America, there's no shortage of crises on the agenda as the International Monetary Fund holds its annual spring meeting in Washington this week. Of all the problems within the IMF's purview, however, the ongoing economic deterioration in Egypt may be
Apr 17, 2012
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Are Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevis the Same?
Could Turkey really go to war against Syria? If it were to do so, Ankara would need to find a way to deal with the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict in Syria and its potential ramifications inside Turkey. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has enjoyed overwhelming support among Syria's
Apr 17, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Back from the Threshold: The Last Chance for Diplomacy to Stop Iran
In this timely and detailed paper, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog (IDF, Ret.) proposes ways to maximise the chances of success in P5+1 talks to move the Iranians back from their nuclear threshold capacity. Key Points Strong evidence suggests that Iran's nuclear programme is intended to actually construct nuclear weapons, not
Apr 17, 2012
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Michael Herzog
Articles & Testimony
Taking Exception: Abu Zubaida's Clear Ties to al-Qaeda
In her March 29 op-ed, "Why not try Abu Zubaida?," lawyer Amanda L. Jacobsen argued that the reason the federal government has yet to charge her client after 10 years in U.S. custody is simple: "The government got it wrong." The government based its "hyperbolic assertions" about Abu Zubaida on
Apr 16, 2012
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Will Syria's Sectarian Divisions Spill Over into Turkey?
Should the conflict in Syria turn Sunni on Alawite, Turkish Alevis may find themselves actively opposing any intervention organized by their own government. Observers of the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria are increasingly worried that the conflict will turn into sectarian struggle, and with good reason: the Assad regime has
Apr 16, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Russian Energy Strategy Makes Partners of Rivals
On April 2-4, a high-ranking delegation from Islamabad visited Moscow to discuss whether Russian energy giant Gazprom will help construct the ambitious gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran. Although the outcome of the talks is still unknown, analysts suggest that the Russian company's involvement in the project would align perfectly
Apr 16, 2012
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Articles & Testimony
How Iran and Turkey See Each Other
Welcome to the new Middle East, which increasingly looks too small to accommodate both Turkey and Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Riyadh on Friday. The Syrian crisis will dominate the agenda in Riyadh, and Iran will scrutinize every statement made by Erdogan and his Saudi hosts
Apr 13, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Alex Vatanka
Should We Fear Mideast Nuclear Proliferation?
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, will other Middle East states want them too? In a bloggingheads.tv conversation, Matt Duss and Michael Singh explore the issues.
Apr 13, 2012
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Michael Singh
Video
Brief Analysis
The Free Syrian Army: A Military Assessment
On April 10, 2012, Jeffrey White and Andrew Exum addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. White, a defense fellow at the Institute, previously completed a thirty-four-year career with the Defense Intelligence Agency, serving in a wide variety of senior analytical and leadership positions. Mr. Exum, a senior
Apr 13, 2012
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Jeffrey White
Andrew Exum
Brief Analysis
Assad's Secretive Cyber Force
Cyber bullets are bullets nonetheless.
Apr 12, 2012
Articles & Testimony
Don't Throw Iran's Democrats under the Bus
In pursuing a nuclear deal with Tehran, Obama is betting against the future. You wouldn't know it from following the news, but the nuclear impasse is not the only issue dividing Iran and the United States. In his latest message to the Iranian people on the occasion of their festival
Apr 13, 2012
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Patrick Clawson
Iraq Update: An Interview
This interview was conducted for Global Politics by Robert Tollast, a graduate of Royal Holloway University of London who has interviewed various diplomats for Small Wars Journal . In March, the Iraqi government imposed tight security restrictions on Baghdad to host the Arab League summit, the first to be held
Apr 13, 2012
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Challenge of Containing Iran's Enrichment Activities
With talks between the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) and Iran set to resume in Istanbul on April 13, officials are discussing possible compromises that might persuade Tehran to give up any ambition of developing nuclear weapons. Apparently, one of the principal components of these
Apr 12, 2012
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Simon Henderson
Olli Heinonen
Brief Analysis
Bahrain on the Brink Jeopardizes U.S. Interests in the Gulf
The ethnic strife between majority Shiites and the ruling Sunni al-Khalifa family in Bahrain is worsening, with a growing risk that the U.S. naval base there could become contentious.
Apr 12, 2012
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Changed Prospects for Turkish Military Intervention in Syria
Several recent developments have put the possibility of military action in Syria on Turkey's agenda. On April 9, Syrian forces opened fire at a refugee camp on the Turkish side of the border, killing two Syrian refugees and wounding two Turks. The number of such refugees crossing into Turkey has
Apr 12, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
What Iran Might Gain from a Nuclear Deal
If Iran decides to seriously negotiate during upcoming nuclear talks -- currently scheduled to begin this weekend in Istanbul -- what might it expect to gain from the resultant deal? Probably not much, because even a comprehensive agreement on nuclear issues would not close the profound geostrategic split between Washington
Apr 11, 2012
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
After the Annan Deadline: Options for U.S. Policy on Syria
Bashar al-Assad's complete disregard for UN special envoy Kofi Annan's April 10 deadline for withdrawal of regime forces from population centers is only the latest sign that Damascus has no intention of implementing the envoy's six-point plan to deal with the Syria crisis. The fact that the regime's armed forces
Apr 11, 2012
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Andrew J. Tabler
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