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Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia Faces Long-Term Insecurity
A string of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia sent oil prices to a 21-year high in early June and prompted speculation about the future stability of the Al-Saud regime. Yet, the near-term terrorist threat presents a relatively minor risk compared to the longer-term possibility of state failure....
Jul 1, 2004
◆
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
In Search of 'Righteous Arabs'
The North African chapter of the Holocaust is largely unknown; many would prefer to leave it that way.... The full text of this article is available to registered users of the Commentary Digital Archive.
Jul 1, 2004
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Middle East Weapons Proliferation:
Lessons from Iraq and Beyond
New Lessons Regarding Proliferation The culmination of Operation Iraqi Freedom has given rise to much debate concerning the exact nature of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Similarly, ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear activities have also been dogged by imprecise intelligence and unclear strategies. Both of these
Jun 30, 2004
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Allied Forces
With the U.S. having transferred sovereignty to Iraqis earlier this week, the Kurds find themselves in a more precarious position than at any time in the last year. On June 8, the U.N. Security Council accepted a new resolution dictating the guidelines for post-U.S. Iraq. The resolution did not mention
Jun 30, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Incident in the Shatt al-Arab Waterway:
Iran's Border Sensitivities
After several days of diplomatic tension between London and Tehran, eight British military personnel who had been captured by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were released and flown out of Iran on June 24. The men, who served with the coalition forces in Iraq, had been in three boats
Jun 28, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Mounting Humanitarian Catastrophe in Sudan:
Implications for U.S. Policy
Secretary of State Colin Powell will visit Sudan on Tuesday, June 29, stopping first in Khartoum before visiting the war-torn western province of Darfur. Powell will be the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Sudan since Cyrus Vance in 1978. In addition to meetings with Sudanese officials, Powell will
Jun 28, 2004
Brief Analysis
The PKK's New Offensive:
Implications for Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, and the United States
On June 1, 2004, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- an organization that appears on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and whose attacks caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s -- declared that it had rescinded its unilateral "ceasefire" of February 2000
Jun 25, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Yemen's War on Terror
Yemen has emerged of late as one of the more fertile locations for Al Qaeda activity. Al Qaeda's Yemeni affiliate, the Islamic Army of Aden-Abyan (IAA), has executed a number of spectacular attacks against Western interests in recent years. It was responsible for the 1998 kidnapping of sixteen Western tourists
Jun 24, 2004
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Implications of a Nuclear Iran
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia The emergence of a nuclear Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a heightened risk of conflict, and possibly nuclear war. This raises several questions: How close is
Jun 24, 2004
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Istanbul NATO Summit:
Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?
Will the Transatlantic Split Be Mended? NATO's Istanbul summit, to be held on June 28-29, will be historic, marking the first such meeting in which the organization's seven new Eastern European members will participate. In fact, with these additions, NATO now borders Russia. Despite the organization's enlargement, however, a transatlantic
Jun 23, 2004
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Philip Gordon
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Americans Die in Riyadh
Three Americans murdered in Saudi capital, Riyadh, in just two weeks. Two of them beheaded, gruesomely hacked off with a knife rather than severed with an axe. There can be few surer ways of attracting the attention of the American public. But then the leader of the gang of Islamic
Jun 21, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Hizballah's West Bank Foothold
When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric
Jun 18, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Sovereignty Now
There have been several positive developments in Iraq in the past several weeks: An interim government was formed and the largely discredited Iraqi Governing Council was disbanded. The U.N. Security Council unanimously embraced the new Iraqi government and declared that it should be sovereign even on security matters. After months
Jun 18, 2004
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
European Union Elections:
Implications for Middle East Policy
On June 10-13, elections were held throughout Europe for the European Parliament (EP), the institution that represents the peoples of the twenty-five member states of the European Union (EU). The results indicated a mixture of uninterest (as evidenced by low voter turnout) and a pattern of electorates punishing their incumbent
Jun 15, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sharon's Disengagement Plan:
A Likud Perspective
Despite recent events, there are several reasons for cautious optimism in Israel. First, many remain hopeful that the war in Iraq will have some positive consequences. Second, a growing sense of realism has emerged among Israelis and Palestinians alike. Third, Yasir Arafat's intifada has failed, both politically and in terms
Jun 14, 2004
Brief Analysis
Whither the Sharon Coalition?
Implications of the Latest Cabinet Vote on Gaza
On June 6, 2004, the Israeli cabinet authorized (by a 14-7 margin) preparations for a possible Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The authorization called for a final decision to be made about the Gaza settlements by March 2005. In the meantime, Israeli national security advisor Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland is heading
Jun 9, 2004
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part II):
An Adaptive Enemy
During late May and early June 2004, Muqtada al-Sadr's revolt was challenged by continuing coalition military action and mounting Shi'i political and religious pressure. His militia was increasingly on the defensive, clinging tightly to defensive positions near key holy sites and disappearing from the streets whenever coalition military operations became
Jun 7, 2004
◆
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part I):
The U.S. Military Response
Muqtada al-Sadr represents a serious long-term political and military challenge to the coalition and the new Iraqi government. Open warfare between Sadr and the coalition first emerged on April 4, 2004, with "uprisings" by his militia, the so-called Mahdi Army, in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. Although Sadr has not
Jun 7, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
After the Likud Referendum: The Future of the Sharon Government
On May 17, 2004, Israeli justice minister Yosef (Tommy) Lapid addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Lapid became head of the Shinui Party in 2000. Under his leadership, Shinui has rapidly grown in popularity and is now the third-largest faction in the 120-member Knesset and the second-largest in
Jun 3, 2004
Articles & Testimony
One Key to Arab Reform Is Improved Literacy Skills
In recent weeks, the Bush administration has circulated a revised draft of its Greater Middle East Initiative, a plan designed to support political, economic and social reform throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds. Reportedly, the new draft -- a version of which will be presented at the G8 summit in
Jun 2, 2004
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