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Brief Analysis
Reading between the Lines of the Sharm al-Shaykh Summit
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host
Jun 4, 2003
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
This Is a Big Mideast Day for Bush
President George W. Bush travels to two scenic Red Sea resorts this week. Today, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, he meets a group of Arab rulers. Tomorrow, in Aqaba, Jordan, he will see the prime ministers of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. If you focus on Aqaba instead of Sharm, you
Jun 3, 2003
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Directions at the Crossroads
If there was ever a moment to end the ongoing war between Israelis and Palestinians and return to the path of peace making, this is it. In Israel, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has established a new baseline for the Likud Party, speaking of the need to end the occupation of
Jun 3, 2003
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Between Hudna and Crackdown:
Assessing the Record of Hamas Ceasefires
In recent days, both Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat and prime minister Mahmoud Abbas have said they expect an agreement on a Hamas ceasefire (or hudna) to be announced soon. According to Abbas, Hamas—in Arabic, "the Islamic Resistance Movement"—"will commit to halting terrorism, both within the green line and
Jun 2, 2003
Brief Analysis
Iraq and Iran:
Crosswinds?
A. WILLIAM SAMII Although there are various players with different agendas in Iran's foreign policy bureaucracy, all those with real power agree on the unattractiveness of the situation in Iraq. Hence, Tehran has become increasingly involved in postwar Iraq. In addition to providing humanitarian assistance to Iraqis, Iran has been
May 30, 2003
Brief Analysis
Beyond Summit Pageantry:
Requirements for Bush's Middle East Success
President George W. Bush will be holding three summits next week that will have a strong Middle East orientation. A G-8 summit will followed by a meeting with Arab leaders in Sharm al-Shaykh, Egypt, and a summit of Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Aqaba, Jordan, representing a new phase in
May 30, 2003
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part III):
How Might Iran Retaliate?
A U.S. or "coalition" strike against Iran's nuclear program would be an exercise in high-stakes compellence. Although the physical results of such a strike (e.g., amount of damage inflicted; number of years by which the Iranian nuclear program would be set back) are uncertain, the consequences for U.S.-Iranian relations are
May 29, 2003
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Heart of the Axis
The National Security Council is scheduled to hold a "senior level meeting" Thursday to formulate administration policy toward Iran. Electronic intercepts indicating senior al Qaeda operatives in Iran were behind the Riyadh bombings suddenly sparked official "concern" regarding the hospitality master terrorists enjoy with the compliments of their Iranian Revolutionary
May 29, 2003
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part II):
Operational Challenges
Counterproliferation strikes on nuclear sites are uncommon but by no means unprecedented. Germany's embryonic nuclear program was attacked during World War II, Iraq's Osiraq nuclear plant was bombed by Iran in 1980 and by Israel in 1981, and Iran's Bushehr reactor site was attacked by Iraq throughout 1984-1988. During the
May 28, 2003
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Intensify the Hunt
The bomb attacks in Riyadh and Casablanca, the warnings in East Africa and Europe and the heightened threat level at home are sober indications that al-Qaida still has global reach despite the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan and the war on terrorism. This should not come as a shock. Al-Qaida continues
May 28, 2003
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Road Map Torn by Ambiguity
There is something intellectually dishonest about a "peace process" that tacitly promises mutually exclusive demands to the Israelis and Palestinians by papering over their differences until they inevitably collide. In the parlance of diplomacy, this is called "creative ambiguity." It formed the basis of the failed Oslo accords in the
May 28, 2003
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part I):
The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action
Having just fought a war to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, and alarmed by fresh signs of dramatic progress by Tehran in the nuclear arena, the United States is pressing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare Iran in violation of its commitments under the Treaty on
May 27, 2003
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
From Acceptance to Implementation:
Next Steps for the Roadmap
Israel's cautious approval of the Roadmap opens a new phase in Middle East peacemaking. Although media focus will now turn to the next episode of high-level engagement by President George W. Bush—perhaps at a Jordan- or Egypt-hosted regional summit in early June—the real test for Washington and its Quartet colleagues
May 27, 2003
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation in the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing
The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they
May 23, 2003
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Simon Henderson
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The 'Cycle of Violence' Fallacy
The Arab-Israeli conflict is often framed as a "cycle of violence." A strong Israeli policy against Palestinian terrorism will only spawn more attacks against Israel, goes the logic. Conversely, if only Israel made unilateral concessions to the Palestinians, it would find a partner for peace. This is the conventional wisdom
May 22, 2003
Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
May 20, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq
Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either
May 19, 2003
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Don't Treat the 'Road Map' As Gospel, and Tread Cautiously
After last week's synchronized terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia and the management shake-up of the U.S. occupation team in Iraq, Americans were reminded that victory over Saddam Hussein did not miraculously compel the region's lions to lie down with its lambs. If dealing with these and other challenges were not
May 18, 2003
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Polling in Iran:
Surprising Questions
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very
May 14, 2003
Brief Analysis
An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East
The fall of Saddam Husayn's regime is a seminal moment in the Middle East. President George W. Bush has called for democratization in the region, and the predicted results vary widely, ranging from Arab radicalization to Islamist militancy to rapid political and economic liberalization. Although liberalism is a minority voice
May 13, 2003
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