Policy Analysis

Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.

Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime.

Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region.

The massive losses suffered by two key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance” create an opening to transform more than just Gaza and Lebanon.

Respondents to an extensive new poll shared remarkably independent views on issues ranging from Hamas’s success in the Gaza war to the likelihood of Israel’s collapse.

Concerns over the regime’s longstanding R&D on weaponized anesthetics and other PBAs have become more pressing given the high risk of transfer to various hostile proxies.

Three former U.S. officials discuss the challenges—and opportunities—that will greet the next administration in year two of the post-October 7 era.

At a recent event in Iran, the leader of the key Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq was strategically positioned in a place of honor directly behind the Supreme Leader.

The Yemeni group has strengthened its capabilities and aggressiveness to the point where it may be less vulnerable to international pressure than its Iranian patron.

Although the former jihadist standard-bearer has failed to inspire attacks during the Gaza war, its efforts to exploit rising anti-Israel sentiment and train a new generation of terrorists in Afghanistan should not be taken lightly.

The group’s ability to reconstitute its military power will depend on Iran restocking its arsenal; in the meantime, it will likely attempt more terrorist attacks abroad.

The group’s false assessment of Israel’s wartime fragility is proving more costly by the day.

The strange little militia Kataib al-Mustafa announced itself to great fanfare in Basra, and judging by its media reception, it has an important mystery backer.

By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement.

Netanyahu must translate Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon into political outcomes while also preventing far-right nationalists in his coalition from defining what is possible with the Palestinians.

Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.

To counter President Saied’s electoral manipulation and increased repression, Washington should work more closely with its contacts in Tunisia’s military, civil society, and European partner governments.

With prospects low for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, the Lebanese group can decide how far this conflict escalates.

The kingdom anticipates and accepts lower oil prices, according to a news report, but the impact on other producers could be comparatively damaging.

The true U.S. strategy debate in the Middle East is not about whether we should stay or go; it’s about how to continue advancing the interests pursued by successive administrations even as hostile competitors and unresolved threats combine to throw U.S. regional policy off balance.