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Articles & Testimony
The State of Denial
Well into the second year of a global war on terrorism, key Arab journalists and intellectuals continue to whitewash Middle Eastern terrorism. In effect, there currently exists a pan-Arab state of denial. The shallow nature of America's anti-terror partnerships in the Middle East is only partly a result of the
Jan 28, 2003
◆
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States:
Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and
Jan 27, 2003
◆
Shafeeq Ghabra
Brief Analysis
Why Are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?
On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers
Jan 27, 2003
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Reforming the Arab Stand:
A Saudi Initiative on Iraq and the Wider Arab World
Last week, the Saudi government published what it described as a "Charter to Reform the Arab Stand," a document intended for endorsement at the next summit of Arab leaders, due to be held in Bahrain in March. Addressed to Arab kings and presidents, the charter calls for more internal reforms
Jan 24, 2003
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israel Goes to the Polls:
An Election Preview
On January 24, 2003, Elie Rekhess and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Rekhess is a senior associate at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University and director of the center's research program on Arab politics in Israel. Mr. Makovsky is
Jan 24, 2003
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
As Mitzna Chooses, Labor's Prospects Recede
Earlier this week, Israel's Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna announced that he would not look to resume a broad coalition government with the Likud Party following the country's upcoming January 28 election, a crucial decision that dropped Labor from 24 to 20 seats (according to today's Yediot Aharonot poll) and
Jan 17, 2003
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Easy on the Stick:
Why the United States Should Deconflict
This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4
Jan 17, 2003
Brief Analysis
The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East:
A Preview of 2003
DENNIS ROSS Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new
Jan 17, 2003
◆
Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Hizballah Fundraising in the American Heartland
Operation Smoke Screen In 1996, an off-duty police officer working as a security guard at a cigarette wholesaler in North Carolina noticed young men entering the building with grocery bags full of cash. The men would queue up in the cashier's line with 299 cartons of cigarettes each, while one
Jan 15, 2003
Brief Analysis
Ansar al-Islam:
Iraq's al-Qaeda Connection
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with
Jan 15, 2003
◆
Jonathan Schanzer
U.S.-Turkish Relations and Iraq
Remarks made on the CNN program Insight. JONATHAN MANN, CNN ANCHOR: Talking Turkey. Washington tries to get a new and nervous government to take a big role against Iraq. What's a war going to be worth? Hello and welcome. Prominent Turks and Americans have been traveling this week in essentially
Jan 14, 2003
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
In Israeli Right-Left Divide, Center May Hold the Balance of Power
The slide in the polls of Ariel Sharon's Likud Party over the last six weeks has been rather dramatic, transforming the character of the campaign from an expected Sharon landslide into a closer contest. In Thursday's Yediot Ahronot-Dahaf poll, Likud dropped from 40 to 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset
Jan 10, 2003
◆
David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Blair Shouldn't Count on Being Bush's 'Bestest Friend'
The gap between London and Washington on foreign policy is widening. Crevasses have often opened or closed in the past -- or have had to be perilously bridged. But the issue of the post-Saddam Hussein Middle East -- or even achieving this nirvana -- now looks dangerously like causing a
Jan 10, 2003
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Banning Hizballah Activity in Canada
On December 11, 2002, the Canadian government banned Hizballah, labeling it a terrorist organization. Strangely, some in Canada are having second thoughts about this measure, likely under the assumption that Hizballah is not a terrorist group but a social and political organization engaged in armed struggle against Israel. Yet, evidence
Jan 6, 2003
◆
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism
The information in this PolicyWatch is partially drawn from a larger article entitled "The Political Economy of Middle East Terrorism," Middle East Review of International Affairs 6, no. 4 (December 2002). Read the full text of that article. At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from
Jan 3, 2003
◆
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Tactical Terrorism:
Iran's Continued Challenge to the Secular Middle East
Excerpted from Israel, the Middle East and Islam: Weighing the Risks and Prospects, ed. Oded Eran and Amnon Cohen (Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2003). On November 9, 2001, faced with a journalist's question about Iran's refusal to cooperate with the investigation into a
Jan 1, 2003
In-Depth Reports
The New Pillar:
Conservative Arab Gulf States and U.S. Strategy
In the months following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, it became increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia was no longer fulfilling its U.S.-backed leadership role in the Persian Gulf. Troubled by apparently widespread domestic sympathy for Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaeda terrorist network, the Saudi royal family began
Dec 31, 2002
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Through Street or Cul-de-Sac?
Assessing the Latest Quartet Roadmap
On December 20, 2002, the Quartet convened at the White House to discuss the Middle East when President George W. Bush met with UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, Russian foreign minister Igor Ivanov, and three ministerial representatives of the European Union (Stig Moeller, Javier Solana, and Chris Patten). The purpose of
Dec 24, 2002
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Missiles and Diplomacy:
The Middle East's Dangerous Mix
The temporary seizure by the Spanish navy last week of a ship carrying Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen was a reminder of the extent of missile proliferation in the Middle East. Similarly, Yemen's insistence on receiving the missiles, despite U.S. pressure, is a reminder of how much priority
Dec 23, 2002
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Activities:
What Might the IAEA Learn?
Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the
Dec 23, 2002
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