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Brief Analysis
Force-17:
The Renewal of Old Competition Motivates Violence
During the recent intifada, certain Palestinian security forces have been intensively involved in violent attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets. Most prominently involved have been the personal security guards of Yasir Arafat, popularly known as Force-17 and officially called Amn al-Ri'asah(Presidential Security). On March 30, Israeli forces bombarded from
Apr 5, 2001
Brief Analysis
Punting on PA/PLO Responsibility for Violence:
Assessing the PLO Compliance Report
Last week, President George W. Bush pointedly called upon Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to "stop the violence," and Assistant Secretary of State Edward Walker testified that Arafat has "made no statements that would indicate that he is opposed to violence or that he even wants to see it stop." Yesterday
Apr 4, 2001
◆
Robert Satloff
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Turkey in the Twenty-First Century
Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in
Apr 3, 2001
Articles & Testimony
Arafat Sows Blame, Reaps Nothing
The modern Ittihadiyah Palace in the Cairo suburb of Heliopolis has Arabesque arches, marble floors and stylish conference rooms. There is also another fixture: Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. Egyptian media always carries the picture of Arafat conferring with his host, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at the Ittihadiyah. Mubarak, who
Apr 3, 2001
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
At the Bottom of the Bush-Mubarak Agenda?
The Slow Pace of Political Reform in Egypt
Urgent regional matters -- such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process -- will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little
Apr 2, 2001
Articles & Testimony
Middle East Peace through Partition
Just last summer, the seven-year-old Israeli-Palestinian peace process seemed on the verge of success. Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasir Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak met with President Bill Clinton at Camp David and came close to agreement. But Arafat walked away from a deal at the last moment
Apr 1, 2001
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Arab League Summit:
Opportunities amid the Vitriol?
In the Middle East, this week witnessed a series of events occurring at such breakneck speed that it is important not to lose the significance of each: • On Thursday, President Bush issued an unprecedented statement calling on Chairman Yasir Arafat to "stop the violence," a statement that could lay
Mar 30, 2001
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey and the Bush Administration:
The Question Marks
Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should
Mar 30, 2001
◆
Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
From Tehran to Beirut to Jerusalem:
Iran and Hizballah in the Palestinian Uprising
As Arab leaders gather in Amman for the first regular Arab summit in a decade, non-Arab Iran is keenly watching to see whether Arab heads-of-state once again make grandiose promises to support the Palestinians. If Arab leaders fail to deliver on these promises, as has been the case with Arab
Mar 26, 2001
Brief Analysis
The Arab-Israeli Peace Process:
Past, Present, and Future
Over the past twelve years a revolution has taken place in the landscape of peacemaking in the Middle East. Twelve years ago, direct negotiations were non-existent and there was no peace process. While negotiations themselves do not ensure an agreement, their total absence ensures that there can be no resolution
Mar 20, 2001
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Libya after Lockerbie:
Internal Dynamics and U.S. Policy
Currently Libya enjoys unprecedented economic stability, especially marked when compared to the economic difficulties it experienced in the 1990s. Oil income is now slightly higher and foreign investment is flowing in, and the gross domestic product (GDP) was up 6.5 percent in 2000. This economic calm has had a direct
Mar 16, 2001
◆
Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Border Disputes on the Arabian Peninsula
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to rule tomorrow on the longstanding border dispute between two Persian Gulf sheikdoms, Qatar and Bahrain. This dispute has preoccupied the ruling families in both countries for decades. It and the much better known IraqKuwait border dispute (not detailed here) are hardly
Mar 15, 2001
Brief Analysis
Sanctions and U.S. Foreign Policy
Sanctions provide the United States with a middle option that has the "least risk" in dealing with problematic Middle Eastern regimes. Sanctions are less costly than military intervention and better than doing nothing at all. During the Cold War, an evaluation of the success of a sanctions policy was not
Mar 13, 2001
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Raymond Tanter
Meghan O'Sullivan
Brief Analysis
The Palestinian Authority:
En Route to the State Department's Terrorism List?
The U.S. Department of State will shortly issue its semi-annual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report. This report, now several weeks overdue, details PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with their "peace process" commitments. And in April, the State Department will release its annual report about global terrorism
Mar 12, 2001
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Lebanon:
Between Hong Kong and Hanoi
The behind-the-scenes conflict between liberal and illiberal forces within Lebanon's political structure is spilling into public view.
Mar 9, 2001
◆
Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
Israel's New Sharon Government
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party
Mar 7, 2001
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Khatami in Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation
Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In
Mar 5, 2001
◆
Brenda Shaffer
Brief Analysis
Step Up U.S. Involvement in Turkish Economic Crisis
Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both
Mar 1, 2001
◆
Alan Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Russian Arms and Technology Transfers to Iran:
Policy Challenges for the United States
In the past decade, Russia has become Iran's main source of advanced conventional arms, an alleged supplier of know-how and technology for its ballistic missile and chemical and biological warfare programs, and its sole source of civilian nuclear technology. Despite sustained U.S. efforts to halt these transfers, they continue, raising
Mar 1, 2001
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing Powell's Trip to Israel and the Palestinian Territories
While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to
Feb 27, 2001
◆
David Makovsky
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