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Brief Analysis
Palestinian Participation in the Islamist Global Network
On Monday, April 17, the trial of twenty-eight Islamists charged with the intention to bomb American and Israeli targets during millennium celebrations will begin in Jordan. The list of the arrestees as published in the Jordanian dailies al-Ra'i and al-Dustur indicates that at least nineteen are of Palestinian origin, including
Apr 14, 2000
Brief Analysis
Who Will Control the Shore and Waters of the Galilee?
Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret
Apr 13, 2000
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Frederic Hof
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khatami's Next Test:
The Trial of Thirteen Jews
On April 13, thirteen Iranian Jews are scheduled to come to trial in Shiraz to face espionage charges that carry the death penalty. The trial, more than a year after the thirteen were originally detained, comes at a critical time for Iran--less than two months after Iranian president Muhammad Khatami's
Apr 11, 2000
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Presidential Jitters
Leaders of Turkey's governing coalition meet tomorrow seeking agreement on a presidential candidate who can muster a parliamentary majority and replace Suleyman Demirel when his term expires May 16. Mainly at stake for Turkey in the upcoming presidential selection process is the survivability and effectiveness of the Ecevit government and
Apr 10, 2000
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
An Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon:
Implications for the Middle East and U.S. Policy
On April 5, 2000, The Washington Institute released a new report, The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon, and hosted its seven contributing authors at a Special Policy Forum. The contributors include Nicole Brackman, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Steven Hecker, John Hillen, Frederic Hof, and Gal
Apr 7, 2000
Brief Analysis
The Taliban and Terrorism:
Report from Afghanistan
Since their rise to power in 1994 and their capture of Kabul two years later, the Taliban have based their legitimacy on the promise of both stability and an end to the war. At the time, people enthusiastically saw a force who disarmed bandits and brought order. Many also hoped
Apr 6, 2000
Brief Analysis
The Oil Market, the Middle East, and Saudi Policy
Recently, Nawaf Obaid, author of The Washington Institute's recent book The Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policy Making in Saudi Arabia, and Edward Morse, executive adviser at the Hess Energy Trading Company, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks. EDWARD MORSE The
Apr 5, 2000
Brief Analysis
Crossing Between Two Tracks:
Barak, Syria, and the Palestinians
The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to
Apr 4, 2000
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David Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield?
Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is
Apr 1, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Egypt-U.S. Relations and Egyptian Foreign Policy
Despite the existence of a two-decade old strategic alliance between Egypt and the United States, political elites in both countries are profoundly skeptical of the goals and intentions of the other side. In Egypt, there are doubts about the legitimacy of U.S. behavior in the world, about the even-handedness of
Mar 24, 2000
Brief Analysis
The Clinton-Asad Agenda:
Make Peace . . . But Prevent War, Too
President Clinton's trip to Geneva on Sunday to meet Syrian leader Hafiz al-Asad begins the last leg of the administration's eight-year marathon effort to broker an elusive Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. The stakes, however, are higher than just Clinton's peacemaking legacy. While most observers believe that Syria and Israel are just
Mar 23, 2000
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
A Mighty Arsenal:
Egypt's Military Build-Up, 1979–1999
Military aid will likely be a topic of discussion between Presidents Hosni Mubarak and Bill Clinton when the Egyptian leader visits Washington this week. Since Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979, Cairo has received $35 billion in military and economic assistance from the United States. Cairo has
Mar 21, 2000
Brief Analysis
Advancing U.S. Interests and Better Relations with Iran
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's March 17 speech to the Conference on American-Iranian Relations was a milestone in the slowly improving bilateral ties. Although a number of useful ideas were broached, on balance the speech missed a golden opportunity to make common cause with reformist supporters of Iranian president Muhammad
Mar 20, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Vatican and the Middle East:
Pope John Paul II's Trip to the Holy Land
MARSHALL BREGER Background Historically the Vatican's view of Israel and Zionism was negative. The Vatican explicitly told Herzl that that the Jews were meant to wander, and if they set foot on Palestinian soil the Christians would be there to convert them. The main concern of the Catholic Church regarding
Mar 17, 2000
Brief Analysis
The Turkish-Israeli-Syrian Triangle
ALAN MAKOVSKY The emergence of close Israeli-Turkish relations is one of the significant strategic developments in the post-Cold War Middle East. These ties are likely to flourish as long as Israel and Turkey remain pro-Western, anti-Islamic fundamentalist, and compatible in military inventory. Turkish-Israeli ties should be described as a "strategic
Mar 15, 2000
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi's New Political Order
On March 1, Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi announced the most sweeping changes in Libya's political structure since the launching of the Jamahiriyya (state of masses) in 1977. In a surprising move, the colonel dismissed his prime minister and foreign minister while abolishing twelve other ministries altogether. Qadhafi insisted that
Mar 9, 2000
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program:
Status and Implications
Iran is pursuing a strategy of flexible acquisition, keeping multiple options open. It wants to take advantage of any opportunities to obtain required materials out of the former Soviet Union. At the same time, it aims to develop a nuclear infrastructure over the long term, pursuing the whole process of
Mar 8, 2000
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel's Strategy for Security and Peace
The Palestinian Track The recent delay in talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is the result of an unnecessary crisis initiated by Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat. The motivation behind this tactic is the idea that you can squeeze more out of the Israelis through crisis than you can
Mar 3, 2000
Brief Analysis
Exceeding Expectations:
Bahrain One Year after Succession
March 6 marks the one-year anniversary of the succession of Shaykh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa in Bahrain following the death of his father, Shaykh Isa Bin Salman al-Khalifa, who had ruled the Persian Gulf nation since independence in 1971. A Strategic Ally. Bahrain is an important ally in America's drive
Mar 2, 2000
Articles & Testimony
Arab-Israeli Diplomacy in 2000:
An Uphill Battle for Peace
To many observers, the stars are aligned to see the final resolution of the century-old Arab–Israeli conflict in the millennium year of 2000. But in a region which too often accents romance over realism, more sober analysts will underscore the wide gaps which still divide the parties, the national and
Mar 1, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
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