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Brief Analysis
Awaiting the First Report on International Religious Freedom
The U.S. State Departments Office of International Religious Freedom will release an Annual Report on International Religious Freedom on September 7, 1999 -- the first since it was required to do so by the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). The Report will offer "an assessment and description of
Sep 2, 1999
Articles & Testimony
Living with a Nuclear Iran?
The nuclear status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East since the 1960s is eroding. Israel remains the sole (undeclared) nuclear-weapons state. But Iraq, having defied the United Nations for nearly a decade, retains its nuclear know-how, and has broken out of its IAEA and UNSCOM cage. And there
Sep 1, 1999
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Russian Arms Sales to the Middle East
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was the number one arms supplier to the Middle East. Moscow's arms transfers during this period were motivated primarily by geostrategic and ideological considerationsin particular its competition with the United Statesand arms were often sold at bargain-basement prices. Yet, with the end of
Aug 26, 1999
Brief Analysis
Developments within the Palestinian Opposition:
Secular and Islamist Groups, the PLO, and 'National Dialogue'
Yesterday, Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat met with Nayef Hawatmeh, leader of the Syria-based Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP). The meeting, which took place in Cairo, was the first between the estranged leaders in six years. Hawatmeh has been a waning force in Palestinian politics for
Aug 23, 1999
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Barak, the United States, and the Middle East Peace Process
ROBERT PELLETREAU Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak faces multiple challenges: He has to implement an agreement he did not negotiate; he has to rebuild a sense of partnership between Israel and the Arab countries; he has to restore the negotiating context, a task not made easier by the Israeli practice
Aug 18, 1999
◆
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
On Board
The Arab-Israeli peace process is, to use the metaphor of choice, "back on track." That, at least, is the stylized version of the message Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak brought with him to Washington in mid-July. The reality, of course, is more complicated. And, for the Clinton administration, Barak's real
Aug 16, 1999
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi's Calculated Diplomacy:
Circumventing Lockerbie
Since the handover of the suspects in the 1988 bombing of PanAm flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, Col. Mu'ammar Qadhafi has embarked on a series of diplomatic initiatives suggesting a fundamental reorientation of Libya's foreign policy. The once-uncompromising ideologue has embraced the mantle of a statesman who appears to adhere
Aug 16, 1999
◆
Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Syrian Media and Government on Barak and the Peace Process:
On the Record
Since the election of Ehud Barak as Israeli prime minister, considerable attention has focused on the renewed prospects of an Israeli-Syrian peace. There may be some significant signs that Damascus is preparing the Syrian people for peace and normalization with Israel, but a review of the state-controlled Syrian media presents
Aug 12, 1999
Brief Analysis
Israeli Policies vis-à-vis Palestinian Authority Activity in Jerusalem
Israeli police acted swiftly yesterday to seal the gateway to the Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount)--the compound that houses Islams third holiest shrine--one day after the Muslim Waqf (religious endowment) began construction on the compounds southern wall. This was the latest in a series of developments involving Palestinian activity in Jerusalem
Aug 11, 1999
Brief Analysis
Turkish-Iranian Tension:
A New Regional Flashpoint?
Buoyed by its recent antiterrorism successes in facing down Syria and capturing Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Turkey now turns its sights on Iran. A series of Turkish-Iranian security meetings tomorrow through Friday will focus on Tehran's allegedly growing support to anti-Turkish organizations. In trying to
Aug 9, 1999
◆
Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Morocco after Hassan II:
Domestic Challenges and Regional Implications
The late King Hassan II leaves behind an important legacy in Morocco and the Middle East. He was a courageous peacemaker; a voice of reconciliation between Muslims, Jews, and Christians; and a vital link between Shii and Sunni Muslims. After Hassan's death, it is now up to his son and
Aug 6, 1999
Brief Analysis
Abdullah's First Half-Year:
An Economic Scorecard
August 8 marks six months since Jordan's King Abdullah II inherited not only a complex political landscape, but also an economy in poor enough shape to pose a significant challenge to Jordan's domestic stability. With a per capita income of $1,600, official unemployment of 16 percent, and an unofficial jobless
Aug 5, 1999
Brief Analysis
Islamists and the State:
Developments in Jordan and the Palestinian Authority
As Yasir Arafat seeks to unify secular Palestinian groups in advance of expected "final-status" talks--highlighted by his meeting this week in Cairo with representatives of George Habash's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)--important developments are also underway among Islamists. The main drama is being acted out in Jordan
Aug 4, 1999
◆
David Schenker
In-Depth Reports
Jewish 'Spies' on Trial:
A Window on Human Rights and Minority Treatment in Iran
Examines the Islamic Republic's history of dealing with religious minorities in order to shed light on the June 1999 indictments of thirteen Iranian Jews on charges of spying for Israel and the United States. The paper also reviews the international response to the indictments and the Iranian leadership's past reactions
Aug 1, 1999
Brief Analysis
From Hassan to Mohammed:
A New Era for Morocco
Given its strategic location at the entrance to the Mediterranean basin, Morocco has for decades been seen as an important bulwark for Western interests, first against Soviet and radical Arab influences (especially the National Liberation Front--FLN--in Algeria) and then against Islamist radicalism, which tore Algeria apart. Morocco appeared as an
Jul 30, 1999
Brief Analysis
Student Demonstrations in Iran:
What Next?
Iran's complexities often lead it to surprise observers. The most recent surprise came not from the hardliners of the regime, but from the most active part of Iran's nascent civil society-students. Who Are These Students? Because of a quota system designed to purge the student body after the Islamic revolution
Jul 27, 1999
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Challenges to U.S. Access to Saudi Energy Investment
The U.S. Department of Commerce must rule by August 9 on whether a suit can proceed against Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq, accusing them of selling oil in the U.S. market at an unfairly low price. The suit was filed with little fanfare in early July by a consortium
Jul 23, 1999
Libya and Africa
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on Africa "I have no time to lose talking with Arabs.... I now talk about Pan-Africanism and African unity." With this declaration, Mu'ammar Qadhafi apparently proclaimed a new era in Libya's foreign policy. In recent weeks, the colonel has buttressed this
Jul 22, 1999
◆
Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Public Opinion:
Internal Affairs and the Peace Process
Palestinian National Reconstruction: The past few years have witnessed enormous progress in the process of Palestinian national reconstruction. Yet, major problems persist. Most notably, the constitutional basis for Palestinian Authority (PA) institutions is lacking. There are no clear rules dictating a separation of powers or the particular roles of government
Jul 21, 1999
Brief Analysis
Ecevit's Turkey:
Foreign and Domestic Prospects
Since the Gulf War, Turkey has emerged as a regional power, both in fact and in self-image. Elements of Turkey's new activism include its relationship with Israel, its willingness to threaten to use force when it deems necessary (for example, against the Kurdistan Workers' Party [PKK] in northern Iraq and
Jul 16, 1999
◆
Alan Makovsky
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