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Brief Analysis
Conservatives Gain Strength in Tehran
Contrary to initial analyses of the April elections, it is now clear that conservative ideologues_not the reputedly more pro-Western supporters of President Rafsanjani_are the dominant force in the Iranian Majlis. That result, plus early Iranian presidential politicking, makes prospects for U.S.-Iranian dialogue as unlikely as ever and could foreshadow an
Jul 23, 1996
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Ideas and Influence in Middle East Politics:
The Role of Think Tanks
Research think tanks are a relatively new phenomenon in the Middle East. For example, the al-Ahram Center in Cairo has only been in operation since 1968, and it was addressing strategic issues virtually alone until the 1980s. There are about fifteen institutions in the region working on strategic issues now
Jul 7, 1996
Brief Analysis
Understanding Syria:
Decisionmaking in the Assad Regime
Hafez al-Assad's decision to join the peace process in 1991 was perhaps one of the most difficult decisions of his entire political career. Many analysts do not see this as a strategic decision, however it does reflect a major change in Assad's policy toward Israel. The mere fact that Assad
Jul 2, 1996
Brief Analysis
Islamists Take Power in Turkish Coalition
Secular Turkey has an Islamist prime minister, at least for now. Turkey's unprecedented coalition government, headed by 69-year-old pro-Islamist Necmettin Erbakan in coalition with heretofore staunch secularist Tansu Ciller, appears to be a compromise that keeps security issues mainly in the hands of the secularists; offers the Islamists dominant responsibility
Jun 28, 1996
◆
Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Dhahran Bomb:
Testing the U.S.-Saudi Relationship
Last night's truck bomb, which devastated an apartment block housing U.S. personnel near the Dhahran air base, is an horrific reminder of the potential vulnerability of the U.S.-Saudi Arabian security arrangement. The explosion in Riyadh last November which killed four Americans and then this latest outrage serve to focus public
Jun 26, 1996
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Arab Summit:
Syria's Qualified Success
In its first summit in nearly six years -- and first since the Madrid process began -- the Arab League responded to the election of Binyamin Netanyahu by laying down firm peace process markers for Israel and, implicitly, the Clinton Administration. While calling for a resumption of negotiations on all
Jun 25, 1996
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Summit Finds Arabs More Divided Than United
In the first Middle East summit since August 1990, Arab leaders are meeting in Cairo to try to forge a unified Arab stance towards the peace process. However, just as the last Arab gathering six years ago ended in acrimony after Iraq's aggression against Kuwait, the current meeting also seems
Jun 21, 1996
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu's Government and Relations with the Arab Periphery
While much of the analysis of Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral victory has emphasized the impact on negotiations with the Arab "inner ring," relations with Arab states on the periphery of the Arab-Israeli arena have been largely overlooked. This is despite the fact that links with Gulf states and North African countries
Jun 20, 1996
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Steven Cook
Brief Analysis
Jordan and the Peace Process
Jordan's peace with Israel is based on a strategic decision to develop a new atmosphere of peace in the region based on cooperation and interdependence. From the beginning this peace has been a warm one; more than an agreement between two governments, it encompasses the daily interactions of two peoples
Jun 19, 1996
Brief Analysis
Turkey and 'The Refah Problem'
As Turkey lurches from political crisis to crisis, with only caretaker or minority governments for the past nine months, government instability has begun to affect key parts of foreign policy. Yesterday, for example, the Turkish parliament voted to renew Operation Provide Comfort -- the Turkey-based, U.S.-led multinational military operation to
Jun 19, 1996
◆
Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Government Formation in Israel:
First Impressions
As Israel's new prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, presents his government to the Knesset, the international community is still searching for indications about his intentions. The incoming government's personnel and policy guidelines will be minutely scrutinized for clues. More intangible, but also more important, will be Netanyahu's own operating structure and
Jun 18, 1996
◆
David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu's Victory:
Implications for U.S. Peace Process Policy
In Israel's election, President Clinton bet heavily on Shimon Peres and lost. Now, as the Administration assesses the implications of Peres' defeat, it is weighing options of holding fast to current policy or "adapting" to a new situation, as Secretary of State Christopher has hinted. Given Benjamin Netanyahu's stunning victory
Jun 10, 1996
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Prospects for the Palestinian Authority:
Politics, Economics, and the Impact of the PNC Meeting
Although the enemies of peace threaten to return to the bloodshed of the past, the peace process has defined a new Palestinian-Israeli dynamic, a relationship of peace. The persistence of the process in the face of so many threats is a testament to the commitment of both the Palestinians and
Jun 3, 1996
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Israeli Elections:
Domestic Politics and the Peace Process
Israel's elections are a watershed event: by a margin of less than 1 percentage point Benjamin Netanyahu will become the first directly elected prime minister in Israel's history (a full list of prime ministerial and parliamentary election results appears at the end of this article). Among Jewish Israelis, the differential
May 31, 1996
◆
Samuel Lewos
Robert Satloff
David Pollock
Brief Analysis
To Vote or Not to Vote:
The Electoral Calculus of Israeli Arabs
With just days to go before Israel's national elections, key Israeli Arab political leaders this week endorsed Shimon Peres for prime minister, lessening the worry within the Labor Party that had emerged in the wake of Operation Grapes of Wrath that parts of a core constituency might abstain in the
May 24, 1996
Brief Analysis
Labor/Peres vs. Likud/Netanyahu:
A Comparative View
Following are excerpts from the Labor and Likud Party platforms and direct quotations from the two parties' prime ministerial candidates on key issues in Israel's May 29 national elections. LABOR PARTY LIKUD PARTY Oslo Accords: "On the basis of the breakthrough in the peace process over the past few years
May 23, 1996
Brief Analysis
Iran's Fragile Economy:
Problems and Prospects
When he came into office, Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani promised a "new Iran" that would be prosperous and powerful; he continued to blame the West -- America, in particular -- rather than recognizing Iran's economic failings. Today, none of this vision has been fulfilled. Instead, the regime faces a deepening
May 22, 1996
In-Depth Reports
Fighting Terrorism, Waging Peace:
Twin Challenges for Democracies and Peacemakers
Keynote addresses by Warren Christopher and Andrew McCarthy. With Ehmet Eymur, Carmi Gillon, Klaus Grunewald, and others.
May 20, 1996
In-Depth Reports
Fighting Terrorism: Challenges for the Peacemakers
The following is a transcript of Secretary of State Warren Christopher's keynote address to The Washington Institute's 2006 Soref Symposium. It is a real pleasure to speak again to the Washington Institute. Under the leadership of Mike Stein, Barbi Weinberg, and Rob Satloff, the Institute has continued to excel as
May 20, 1996
◆
Warren Christopher
Brief Analysis
The Stakes in the Iraq Oil Sales Dispute
Iraq and the United Nations are in the fourth round of negotiations about terms for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 986 -- an arrangement to permit limited and controlled oil sales to provide Baghdad with funds to purchase humanitarian goods. The talks hit a snag in late April, when the
May 14, 1996
◆
Patrick Clawson
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