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Articles & Testimony
You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production
The cartel’s latest bid to increase profits will likely be counterbalanced by depressed summer demand and increased output by other producers.
Jun 8, 2020
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Bumped Crops: Iran’s Grain Imports and Geopolitical Shocks
Despite its declarations of self-sufficiency, the country still imports large amounts of agricultural staples from abroad, leaving its food basket vulnerable to supply shocks, sanctions-related payment difficulties, environmental volatility, and other risks.
Jun 8, 2020
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Kevjn Lim
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Sees a Historic Moment in Annexation. But He Might Not Be Seeing the Risks.
The prime minister has not acknowledged the important differences between this move and other recent controversies, instead making the unnecessarily dangerous bet that all the warnings will once again prove unfounded.
Jun 5, 2020
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s COVID-19 Response
President Erdogan’s ever-tightening circle of policy influencers has lagged behind on proposing innovative solutions to the pandemic, giving other politicians an opening to become the main drivers of national change.
Jun 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Deniz Yuksel
Brief Analysis
Recent Aid Agreements Provide Opportunity to Support Women in Jordan
New USAID funds and a pending strategy for enhanced development cooperation could facilitate reforms that foster a better economic environment for women, and for the kingdom as a whole.
Jun 4, 2020
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Allison Jacobs Anderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Erdogan’s Influence in Europe: A Swedish Case Study
In August 2019, Mikail Yüksel—a Swedish politician of Turkish origin—founded a new party in Sweden called ‘ Nyans’ (Nuance). Yüksel, formerly a member of Sweden’s small liberal, slightly left-wing, Center-party, started the new party after being forced to resign on the cusp of Sweden’s elections to the European Parliament, where
Jun 4, 2020
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Magnus Norell
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Taking Back the Neighborhood:
The IRGC Provincial Guard's Mission to Re-Islamize Iran
In 2008, the IRGC established a new branch that remains little known or studied today: the Provincial Guard. Operating in all of Iran's thirty-one provinces plus Tehran city, the IRGC-PG carries out the regime's revolutionary aims at the local level, inculcating conservative religious values, shaping educational curricula, and even sponsoring
Jun 4, 2020
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Saeid Golkar
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Assad’s Forces Move Toward Daraa
At the beginning of May, the Assad regime dispatched major military reinforcements to the city of Daraa in southern Syria. Regular reports appeared that there would soon be a military operation in the province carried out with Iranian backing. In response, a new uprising broke out in Daraa, with dozens
Jun 2, 2020
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Bassam Barabandi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sooner Rather Than Later: The Demand for Decentralization in Iraqi Kurdistan
As Iraqi Kurdistan faces several severe crises simultaneously, it must evaluate the benefits and limitations of a popular call to reform and decentralize its current model of government. The Kurdistan regional government’s (KRG) current outdated model of governance will likely prove to be ineffective in handling these major challenges, revealing
Jun 2, 2020
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Sardar Aziz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Turkey’s Intervention in Libya Disrupts the UAE but Opens the Door for Russia
In a strong and extraordinary statement, the Pentagon accused Moscow on Tuesday of dispatching fighter jets to Libya to bolster Kremlin-linked mercenaries in support of the eastern based commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar. The move marks a dramatic escalation in Russia's role in the Libyan conflict
Jun 1, 2020
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Mohamed Eljarh
Articles & Testimony
Iran Continues Its Nuclear Work, But Is It Weapons Grade?
An upcoming IAEA report will give Washington and Europe more clarity on where the nuclear program stands and whether united Western efforts to contain it are still possible.
Jun 1, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sudan’s Transition: Challenges and Opportunities
Last year, the nonviolent protests of the Sudanese people triumphed over thirty years of oppression, as reflected in the Revolution’s best-known slogan: “Freedom, peace, and justice.” These three words represent the Sudanese people’s yearning to bring these ideals to their country; pressure has led to a negotiation process culminating in
Jun 1, 2020
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Abdelrahiem Khalifa
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State's Resurgence in the COVID Era?
From Defeat to Renewal in Iraq and Syria
Two experts assess the recent attack patterns and future prospects of a group that once seemed on the cusp of defeat in both countries.
May 29, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Michael Knights
Video
Brief Analysis
The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces
Three experts examine one of the most sensitive problems facing Iraq's new prime minister: the future of militias that were mobilized to fight the Islamic State but have since balked at subsuming themselves to the government's authority.
May 28, 2020
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Should the PA Respond to the U.S.-Israeli Annexation Plan?
Israel's newly formed unity government intends to press ahead with a unilateral action to annex Palestinian lands in the West Bank and the Jordan Valley by early July. The current plan appears to include settlement blocs and most of the 140 settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, where
May 27, 2020
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Mohammed Dajani
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Gas Running Into Commercial, Technical, and Political Challenges
Reduced demand caused by the coronavirus and low oil/gas prices has complicated plans for further development of the region’s offshore reserves.
May 27, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Iran and America—The Impasse Continues
The answer does not lie in doubling down on pressure or ‘returning’ to diplomacy, but rather in wielding those policy tools in concert under the guidance of a realistic strategy.
May 27, 2020
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Michael Singh
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Avoiding an Epic Mistake:
The Case for Continuing the U.S. Mission in Sinai
For almost four decades, the Multinational Force & Observers has protected Israel-Egypt peace and anchored stability in the Sinai Peninsula, but a new Pentagon initiative could end the American contribution by late next year. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has indicated that all military endeavors must now fall within a National
May 27, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Denis Thompson
Articles & Testimony
Remaining and Expanding: The Recovery of Islamic State Operations in Iraq in 2019-2020
Two security experts comb incident data from the past year to explain how the group is resurging and what factors are most likely to accelerate this troubling trend.
May 26, 2020
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Michael Knights
Video
Brief Analysis
Can the UN Still Save Syria?
Views from a Former Special Envoy
Is it too late for the UN to counter the Assad regime and its allies on their abuses or to salvage cross-border mechanisms for humanitarian aid? Former UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura joined a virtual Policy Forum to probe the prospects.
May 25, 2020
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Staffan de Mistura
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