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Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Budget Is Tight, But Not Tight Enough
Rouhani has taken a remarkably austere fiscal approach ahead of the looming parliamentary election, but the country’s economic situation is still not sustainable over the long run.
Dec 13, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
GCC Security Issues, as Their Publics See Them: A Rare Look at Real Data
Polling results from five Gulf countries show where citizens and their leaders converge and diverge on Iran, U.S. relations, and other crucial foreign policy matters.
Dec 12, 2019
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Does It Mean to Be a Shia in Lebanon Today?
Among the Shia in Lebanon, two major shifts are taking place within the collective perception of the community. One, Lebanese Shia identity is moving from a sectarian identity to a national one, caused by the costs endured by the Shia community over the past decade. And two, there is a
Dec 12, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Deterring Iran’s Next Attack
Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.
Dec 11, 2019
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Michael Eisenstadt
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Iranian Regime’s Targeted Assault on Protesting Ahwazi People
Iranian regime forces and affiliated militias have been taking advantage of the world’s diverted attention to carry out a campaign of slaughter and mass arrests against the country’s Ahwazi Arabs. These killings are occurring in the Ma`shour (also known as the Bandar-e Ma`shour) area of the Arab Ahwaz region of
Dec 11, 2019
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Rahim Hamid
Brief Analysis
Algeria’s Election Is a Make-or-Break Moment
The vote’s outcome will not have much legitimacy in the eyes of the people, so Washington should focus on urging all parties to lay the groundwork for longer-term reforms aimed at breaking the political deadlock.
Dec 10, 2019
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Sarah Feuer
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A Caretaker President Clings to Legitimacy in Yemen
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In 2012, during a moment of national and regional consensus, the reserved, nonthreatening Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was chosen as temporary president of Yemen. But Hadi, now seventy-four years old, has held onto power ever since, despite lacking a large base of domestic loyalists. Most important for the Yemeni people, the war needs to end with either a transitional council or elections so that a future leader enjoys the popular legitimacy Hadi lacks.
Dec 10, 2019
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Elana DeLozier
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Qatar Rift Overshadows Riyadh Summit
Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.
Dec 9, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Europe Pushing Back on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Britain, France, and Germany are taking a more proactive role by publicly emphasizing known concerns about the regime’s R&D efforts, but practical mechanisms for ensuring transparency are still needed.
Dec 9, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?
Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.
Dec 8, 2019
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Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Punishing Iran’s Triggermen in Iraq: Opening Moves in a Long Campaign
Some of the worst perpetrators of the murderous crackdown against Iraqi protestors have finally been sanctioned, but follow-on actions need to be taken more quickly in coordination with Britain and other allies.
Dec 6, 2019
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Libya Has Yet to Recover
Given the group’s operational silence and loss of foreign help, it may not be able to launch the type of insurgency seen in Syria, but that could change if U.S. attention wanes militarily or diplomatically.
Dec 6, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Arab Security Sectors Can Advance a Peace Between Peoples
Terrorism knows no borders—and the struggle against it calls for neighboring countries to cooperate for the sake of regional and global security. Regions including Europe have come to recognize this reality, with dozens of governments forging unprecedented partnerships in policing, intelligence, and counterterrorism over the past decade. In the Middle
Dec 6, 2019
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Jassim Mohamad
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Erdogan, Davutoglu, and the Kurdish Vote in Turkey
After considerable consternation in U.S. congress against Turkey’s incursion into Syria, and a subsequent successful visit by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White House in mid-November, much attention in the United States has been focused on Turkey’s foreign policy agenda. However, Turkey’s foreign policy in Syria is deeply
Dec 6, 2019
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Jiwan Soz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Lebanon Poll: Despite Protests, Most Shiites Still Back Hezbollah, while Sunnis and Christians Turn More Negative
A reliable new Lebanese public opinion poll, conducted in November, shows that a large majority of the country’s Shiites retain positive views of both Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons—even as major anti-government protests include many Shiite participants for the first time. This surprising finding casts doubt on speculation that Hezbollah
Dec 4, 2019
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Algeria’s Political Change Offers Hope for Peace with Morocco and North African Prosperity
Since the beginning of the year, Algerians have repeatedly come to the streets to challenge their political system. Some have used these ongoing protests, also known as Smile Revolution or Hirak, to celebrate their current victories while others have used the occasion to call for a complete change in the
Dec 4, 2019
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Mohamed Chtatou
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes
Angry over Iranian militia abuses and Baghdad’s sundry failures, a number of powerful tribes are setting aside their traditional sectarian loyalties and pushing to safeguard their basic needs, sometimes violently.
Dec 4, 2019
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Phillip Smyth
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Meetings May Provide Economic Answers—or Just More Questions
Amid Saudi stock sell-offs, Russian production limits, U.S. tariff showdowns, and a flurry of other factors, the potential impact of the cartel’s Vienna meetings is difficult to predict.
Dec 4, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What Happens When Everyone’s Trying to Get Nukes?
Israel’s ‘Begin Doctrine,’ a commitment to prevent rival regional powers from acquiring nuclear weapons, risks becoming unenforceable, but it’s not clear what comes next.
Dec 4, 2019
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Jay Solomon
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The U.S.-Kurdish Relationship in Iraq After Syria
On November 23, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrived in Iraq for an unannounced trip that included a visit to meet with the President of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) Nechirvan Barzani. In the published White House remarks of the meeting, one sentence asserted a sense of confidence in the
Dec 3, 2019
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Sardar Aziz
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