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Brief Analysis
Russian Foreign Policy after Putin's Return
Contrary to expectations, Russia's positions on Iran and Syria are unlikely to harden during Putin's third presidential term, which starts next week.
May 2, 2012
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Articles & Testimony
How Does the New Turkey Think?
Turkey has changed so drastically in the past decade that it has become largely unrecognizable. For starters, the country has experienced a sort of economic miracle, nearly tripling its economic output in the past decade and subsequently joining the ranks of the elite G-20 club. Politically, too, Turkey has undergone
Apr 30, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jordanian Premier's Sudden Resignation Points to New Political Strategy
The resignation of Jordan's prime minister caps a process in which the kingdom turned away from wooing the largely Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood and instead opted to shore up traditional East Bank sources of support. Given the intense regional challenges Jordan faces, Washington should give Amman a wide berth to put its internal house in order.
Apr 27, 2012
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Meet the Islamist Political Fixer Who Could Be Egypt's Next President
When Egypt's Presidential Elections Commission disqualified Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate Khairat al-Shater from the upcoming elections last week, the Brotherhood was angered, but not surprised. Egyptian law bans criminal convicts from running for president, and though al-Shater's 2007 conviction for belonging to an "illegal organization" -- namely, the Brotherhood --
Apr 27, 2012
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Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Combating Transnational Organized Crime
The Defense Department's deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics and global threats addressed an off-the-record Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. The following is an excerpt from his prepared remarks. "The U.S. government has, for decades, dedicated significant resources to stemming the flow of illicit drugs into the United States, and
Apr 26, 2012
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William F. Wechsler
Articles & Testimony
Confronting Damascus: U.S. Policy toward the Evolving Situation in Syria, Part II
Chairman Chabot and Ranking Member Ackerman: Thank you for this opportunity to testify before the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia on the situation in Syria and U.S. government efforts to force President Bashar al-Assad to "step aside," as outlined by President Obama in August 2011. During Part
Apr 25, 2012
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Libya's Elections Need More U.S. Support
Despite trepidation over Libya's upcoming elections, they offer the best way to solve the country's legitimacy crisis, and Washington should tailor its assistance accordingly.
Apr 24, 2012
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Andrew Engel
Articles & Testimony
Arab AKPs in the Making?
Can Turkey's experience in the past decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government -- blending democracy, close ties with the West, a "Muslim" foreign policy, capitalism and Islamism -- be copied by Arabs, as many claim? Probably not -- except for Tunisia. Although rooted in Turkey's Islamist movement
Apr 23, 2012
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David Pollock
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Implications of Egypt's Gas Cut-Off with Israel
Cairo's otherwise disappointing decision to freeze Israel's gas supplies gives Washington an opportunity to separate its Egypt and Eastern Mediterranean energy policies.
Apr 23, 2012
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Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
No Brothers in Arms in Egypt
In late May, Egypt will ostensibly hold its first open presidential elections in nearly six decades. But the Muslim Brotherhood suspects treachery. This past Tuesday's disqualification of ten presidential candidates, including Brotherhood leader Khairat al-Shater, has convinced the group that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has
Apr 20, 2012
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Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Russia's Position on Iran's Nuclear Program
In the April 14 talks in Istanbul, Russia demonstrated once again that it could be a team player. But Moscow's cooperative front with the other members of the P5+1 group originates not in a pure desire to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue but rather in a bid to gain leverage
Apr 19, 2012
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Brief Analysis
Assad Must Be Forced to Allow Peaceful Assembly
Videos and reports from Syria over the past week show that Bashar al-Assad's forces continue to violate the ceasefire outlined by UN special representative Kofi Annan on April 12. The regime has neither ended its use of heavy weapons in population centers nor -- an additional obligation -- pulled back
Apr 18, 2012
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Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Are Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevis the Same?
Could Turkey really go to war against Syria? If it were to do so, Ankara would need to find a way to deal with the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict in Syria and its potential ramifications inside Turkey. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has enjoyed overwhelming support among Syria's
Apr 17, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Back from the Threshold: The Last Chance for Diplomacy to Stop Iran
In this timely and detailed paper, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog (IDF, Ret.) proposes ways to maximise the chances of success in P5+1 talks to move the Iranians back from their nuclear threshold capacity. Key Points Strong evidence suggests that Iran's nuclear programme is intended to actually construct nuclear weapons, not
Apr 17, 2012
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Assad Continues Violent Attacks on the Opposition
Data from one of the key Syrian opposition groups, the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), shows a persistent pattern of violent, armed regime actions against the people despite the ceasefire that supposedly went into force last week ( view the Syria Incident Database). The regime has effectively continued its struggle against
Apr 17, 2012
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Could the Gulf States Intervene in Syria?
The participation of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the Libyan conflict demonstrated the Gulf Cooperation Council's activism and capability. In recent months, therefore, speculation has focused on possible GCC intervention in the Syrian civil war. On February 27, Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told the Friends
Apr 17, 2012
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
A Crisis of Confidence
From failing European economies to staggering murder rates in Central America, there's no shortage of crises on the agenda as the International Monetary Fund holds its annual spring meeting in Washington this week. Of all the problems within the IMF's purview, however, the ongoing economic deterioration in Egypt may be
Apr 17, 2012
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Taking Exception: Abu Zubaida's Clear Ties to al-Qaeda
In her March 29 op-ed, "Why not try Abu Zubaida?," lawyer Amanda L. Jacobsen argued that the reason the federal government has yet to charge her client after 10 years in U.S. custody is simple: "The government got it wrong." The government based its "hyperbolic assertions" about Abu Zubaida on
Apr 16, 2012
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Will Syria's Sectarian Divisions Spill Over into Turkey?
Should the conflict in Syria turn Sunni on Alawite, Turkish Alevis may find themselves actively opposing any intervention organized by their own government. Observers of the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria are increasingly worried that the conflict will turn into sectarian struggle, and with good reason: the Assad regime has
Apr 16, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Russian Energy Strategy Makes Partners of Rivals
On April 2-4, a high-ranking delegation from Islamabad visited Moscow to discuss whether Russian energy giant Gazprom will help construct the ambitious gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran. Although the outcome of the talks is still unknown, analysts suggest that the Russian company's involvement in the project would align perfectly
Apr 16, 2012
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Nikolay Kozhanov
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