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Brief Analysis
Iran's Political Super Bowl: Ahmadinezhad vs. Rafsanjani
On February 24, 2011, the two leaders of the Iranian opposition Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, were arrested and taken initially to Heshmatiyeh prison in Tehran. Meanwhile, within the ruling circle of the Islamic Republic, hardliners are trying to further consolidate their position. At least as important
Mar 4, 2011
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Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
The Consequences of Inaction in Libya
To deal with the possibility that Qaddafi and his loyalists will use all the force at their disposal before giving in, with an escalation of violence in Libya, the United States and EU should seek UN Security Council authorization for the imposition of a no-fly zone in Libya.
Mar 4, 2011
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Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
How to Deal with Islamist Movements in Post-Revolutionary Regimes?
Being less violent than al-Qaeda is not enough: Washington should demand that potential partners in post-despotic Middle Eastern states demonstrate acceptance of civil society, liberal values, and international agreements and borders.
Mar 4, 2011
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Gulf States Mull Massive Aid to Oman and Bahrain
The oil-rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf may soon inject huge sums of aid money into Oman and Bahrain to quiet the unrest that has erupted in both countries recently. Reports of the likely funding -- which includes more than $10 billion for Bahrain alone, a nation of some
Mar 4, 2011
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Simon Henderson
In-Depth Reports
Israel: Asset or Liability?
A Debate on the U.S.-Israel Relationship
Is Israel an asset or liability to the United States? This question -- which goes to the heart of U.S. policy in the Middle East -- has emerged as a focus of intense debate. If Israel is judged a net asset to the United States, then the U.S.-Israel partnership is
Mar 3, 2011
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Strategic Geography of the Libyan Civil War
In PolicyWatch #1768, Jeffrey White highlighted the possibility for a prolonged struggle in Libya's civil war due to the lack of offensive capability demonstrated by both sides. The following article explores the reasons why strategic geography in Libya reinforces the potential for stalemate and underlines the need for international intervention
Mar 3, 2011
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance
The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded. At the moment, the military balance lies somewhat in favor of
Mar 2, 2011
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
New Evidence of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
On March 1, the Pentagon announced it was sending the USS Monterey -- a vessel equipped with the sophisticated Aegis radar system, capable of protecting Europe from a potential Iranian nuclear missile strike -- to the Mediterranean. The guided missile cruiser is the first part of a missile shield announced
Mar 2, 2011
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Asserting Liberal Values: The Future of British and U.S. Counterradicalization Strategies
How are U.S. and British counterterrorism strategies evolving?
Mar 2, 2011
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Matthew Levitt
Seamus Hughes
Mark Williams
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
Religious Minorities in the Near East and South and Central Asia
On March 1, 2011, Dina Guirguis, a Keston Family research fellow with The Washington Institute's Project Fikra: Defeating Extremism through the Power of Ideas, testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The following is an excerpt from her prepared remarks. The strong showing of Christians during Egypt's revolution -- holding
Mar 1, 2011
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia's Musk Revolution
Although few serious analysts of Saudi Arabia believe that politics in the kingdom could play out as dramatically as recent events in North Africa, it remains to be seen whether the Saudi people will continue to quietly accept the royal family's succession chess game.
Mar 1, 2011
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's New a la Carte Nerve
Have doubts that Turkey has changed since the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, assumed power in 2002? A look at what arouses popular anger in Turkey today reveals a society in flux -- one rapidly adopting new and risky political sensitivities. In the past, actions considered offensive to Turkish
Feb 28, 2011
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones
In PolicyWatch #1763, Jason Hanover and Jeffrey White outlined the range of military options that the United States could employ to protect the Libyan population from the Qadhafi regime's military forces. The following article specifies the challenges posed by the enforcement of no-fly zones and related no-drive zones, drawing on
Feb 25, 2011
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Help Tunisia First
The United States should make at least $50 million available immediately for democratic institution building in Tunisia. The country's size and considerable assets mean that a modest investment could bring huge returns for the Tunisian people and U.S.-Tunisia relations.
Feb 25, 2011
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J. Scott Carpenter
Articles & Testimony
Protests in Iraq
Though recent Iraqi protests have not pushed for the removal of the central government, they nonetheless illustrate a number of widespread attitudes that inform Iraqis' alienation from their authorities.
Feb 25, 2011
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Ahmed Ali
Brief Analysis
Protecting Egypt's Evolving Democracy
As Egypt's revolution reaches the one-month mark, the first of the people's major demands has been met with the departure of Hosni Mubarak. But this development has left the country's leadership in the hands of the Supreme Military Council (SMC), a body apparently headed by Mubarak's minister of defense, Muhammad
Feb 24, 2011
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David Pollock
Brief Analysis
U.S.-NATO Intervention in Libya: Risks and Benefits
Muammar Qadhafi has vowed to fight to the bitter end, raising the prospect of a protracted and bloody conflict with opportunities for exploitation by radical Islamist elements. Although external military intervention could help prevent a very bad outcome, such action carries its own risks and potential complications. The United States
Feb 24, 2011
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Jason Hanover
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Israel's Strategic Concerns over Upheaval in Egypt
The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt caught Israel by surprise. Awe-inspiring as they are to Israel's government and people, these revolutions and the ongoing troubles in Bahrain and Libya are also of immense concern to Israel because of their potential strategic ramifications. Going forward, developments in Egypt will be
Feb 23, 2011
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Egypt's Military in Power: Dynamics, Challenges, Prospects
Egypt is now effectively under military control and will likely remain so for some months. The Supreme Military Council (SMC) holds effective decisionmaking authority, although a civilian cabinet remains in place. The SMC has pledged to make a swift transition to a new civilian government, but to date it has
Feb 22, 2011
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
"The Last Bullet": Qadhafi and the Future of Libya
Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last
Feb 22, 2011
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Simon Henderson
David Schenker
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