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Brief Analysis
Hamas Challenge to the PLO:
Opportunities and Prospects
Speaking at a January 28 "Gaza Victory" rally in Qatar, Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mashal announced the start of a new campaign -- not against Israel but against the Fatah-led Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Declaring Hamas's intention to replace the PLO with a new body that would serve the
Feb 9, 2009
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Mohammad Yaghi
Brief Analysis
Surprises from Iraq's Provincial Elections
On February 5, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) released preliminary results from last Saturday's provincial elections. With 90 percent of the votes tallied, Iraq's new political landscape and key trends are slowly emerging -- with some surprising results. By far the loudest message from Iraqi voters was that the
Feb 6, 2009
◆
J. Scott Carpenter
Ahmed Ali
Brief Analysis
UNRWA Nears Sixty:
Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?
On February 3, 2009, James Lindsay and Andrew Whitley addressed a Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute marking the publication of Mr. Lindsay's new study Fixing UNRWA: Repairing the UN's Troubled System of Aid to Palestinian Refugees. Mr. Lindsay, an Aufzien fellow at The Washington Institute, served with UNRWA
Feb 6, 2009
◆
James G. Lindsay
Articles & Testimony
How Not to Fund Hamas:
Scrutinize Those Who Receive U.S. Aid
In the wake of the Gaza war, few tasks are more critical than providing much-needed humanitarian support to the residents of Gaza without inadvertently empowering Hamas. Unfortunately, one of the primary vehicles the U.S. government intends to use to provide newly pledged aid, the U.S. Agency for International Development, or
Feb 4, 2009
Brief Analysis
Another Israeli Election Down to the Wire
On February 10, Israelis will go to the polls to choose a new government, and the election campaigning -- curtailed by Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip -- has resumed in earnest. The abbreviated campaign may explain why an estimated 30 percent of Israelis are undecided, a very high
Feb 3, 2009
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Can Obama Break Turkey's EU Impasse?
Europeans watched nervously during the December 2008 Russian-Ukrainian crisis, wondering whether Russia might cut off gas supplies to them as well. This situation was yet another illustration of the potential benefits of Turkey's accession to the European Union, since Turkey could serve as an alternate route for oil and gas
Feb 3, 2009
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Iraqi Election Success?
Not So Fast
Iraq's Jan. 31 provincial elections, the first since 2005, may seem to have gone rather smoothly and been accompanied only by limited violence, but it's still too early to breathe a sigh of relief. Every election has losers, and losers don't always accept defeat graciously. In mature Western democracies, losers
Feb 3, 2009
Brief Analysis
Qatar Challenges Washington on Hamas
Speaking last week in Qatar, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal thanked Qatar for its support and declared that Palestinian fighters had "won the war [in the Gaza Strip] by defeating Israeli plans." Mashal also lauded controversial Islamic scholar Yousef al-Qaradawi as the "shaikh of resistance." By tolerating such an event, Qatar
Feb 2, 2009
◆
Simon Henderson
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Turn from the West
Turkey is a special Muslim country. Of the more than 50 majority-Muslim nations, it is the only one that is a NATO ally, is in accession talks with the European Union, is a liberal democracy and has normal relations with Israel. Under its current government by the Justice and Development
Feb 2, 2009
Brief Analysis
Obama's Personal 'Public Diplomacy': A Very Preliminary Assessment
In his first week in office, President Obama spent the lion's share of his time on domestic economic issues, but international concerns -- specifically Arab, Muslim, and Middle East -- were an important focus as well. Collectively, the new president's actions and words constitute an unusually high-profile and personalized "public
Jan 29, 2009
◆
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Gaddafi's Grand Vision
In recent days, Washington has experienced a media blitz by the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, including an op-ed in the New York Times and his first US videoconference in months. In the wake of the Obama transition, the "Guide of the Revolution" is reaching out to the new administration, using
Jan 28, 2009
◆
Dana Moss
Brief Analysis
Realities of the UN in Lebanon
During the early-January Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip, unknown groups fired rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel on two separate occasions. The Katyushas were launched from an area supposedly under the control of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese army, in accordance with
Jan 27, 2009
◆
Magnus Norell
Brief Analysis
Tough Choices on Hamas Prompt Arab Disarray
Arab support for the Palestinians has been the bedrock of Arab diplomacy for decades, but the recent Israeli military action against Hamas fighters in the Gaza Strip has divided those backing Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah Party and those supporting its Hamas rival. A series of meetings before
Jan 27, 2009
◆
Andrew J. Tabler
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Drug Wars
This past week, President-elect Obama declared that "Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are our number one threat when it comes to American security," pledging to "do everything in our power" to eliminate safe havens which terrorists can use to plan attacks against the U.S. As these terrorist networks become increasingly
Jan 27, 2009
In-Depth Reports
Fixing UNRWA:
Repairing the UN's Troubled System of Aid to Palestinian Refugees
UNRWA -- is it part of the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict or part of the problem? The humanitarian aspect of the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas has cast a fresh spotlight on the presence in Gaza of the nearly sixty-year-old United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine
Jan 26, 2009
◆
James G. Lindsay
Brief Analysis
Defining a 'Prediplomacy' Agenda for U.S.-Mideast Efforts
Inheriting an uneasy truce in the Gaza Strip presents the Obama-Clinton-Mitchell team with an early set of critical Middle East tests. Before they can begin to address core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, they will have to focus over the next several weeks on an agenda of "prediplomacy" issues
Jan 26, 2009
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Provincial Elections Kick Off Iraq's Year of Choices
This week, after more than a year of anticipation, most of Iraq's governorates will hold provincial elections. The election process and its outcome will provide a strong indication of whether Iraq's democracy will continue to consolidate or begin to unravel. More worrisome than the elections, however, may be the frustrated
Jan 26, 2009
◆
J. Scott Carpenter
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Preliminary Assessment of Israel's Operation Cast Lead
On January 18, Israel announced its military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, following the three-week offensive Operation Cast Lead. Although no definitive judgments can be made at this point -- post-conflict arrangements are concluding while scattered gunfire is still occurring -- Israel has made several tangible gains during the Gaza
Jan 23, 2009
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Iran-al-Qaeda Conundrum
Last week, the Treasury Department issued terrorist designations for three senior al-Qaeda operatives who spent time in Iran, including Usama bin Laden's son, Saad. But the action, which targeted individuals unlikely to have assets in the United States or to move money in their own names, appears to be linked
Jan 23, 2009
◆
Matthew Levitt
Michael Jacobson
Articles & Testimony
Is Turkey Still a Western Ally?
I spent part of 2008 in Turkey to figure out whether Ankara could still be considered a Western ally. That it's necessary to raise this question at all is an indication of how far the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) has isolated the country from its traditional partners. For
Jan 23, 2009
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