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Brief Analysis
Lights, Camera, Inaction?
Saudi Arabia’s Counterterrorism Conference
Beginning on February 5, Riyadh hosted a four-day international counterterrorism conference. Amid extraordinary splendor in palatial conference facilities, delegates from several international organizations and a reported fifty countries (including the United States) listened to speeches by the Saudi leadership and then discussed initiatives in breakout workshops. The conference served as
Feb 11, 2005
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Backing Kuwait's Stand against Terrorism
Five firefights between Kuwaiti government forces and terrorist cells since January 10, 2005, have brought the hitherto low-profile issue of Kuwait's role in the war on terror to the fore. The incidents highlight the increased terrorist threat in a country that, in addition to attracting the normal commercial contingent of
Feb 11, 2005
◆
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Way Forward in the Middle East Peace Process
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations. Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas have now met and declared an end to ongoing hostilities. Are we about to see peace made between the Israelis and Palestinians? No, but we may finally see an end to the war that has governed the
Feb 10, 2005
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Sustaining an Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire
The Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire announced on February 8 in Sharm al-Sheikh created a window of opportunity that will slam shut quickly if terrorists resume attacks against Israel. After four-and-half years of incessant terrorist activity, Israeli tolerance for negotiating peace in the face of ongoing attacks is nil. The entire project, therefore
Feb 10, 2005
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
In the Wake of the Iraqi Elections:
Political and Security Implications
The surprisingly high turnout in the Iraqi elections is a positive development, but it is only one milestone in the road ahead. Beyond the elections, reconciliation becomes the fundamental issue. Sunni Arabs, who represent the overwhelming majority of insurgents, are demographically and politically isolated. As they have long been politically
Feb 9, 2005
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Michael Knights
Jeffrey White
Sharon, Abbas to Meet in Summit Talks
The following is a transcript from the NPR program Talk of the Nation. JOE PALCA, host: This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Joe Palca in Washington, sitting in for Neal Conan. Tomorrow, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and newly elected Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will hold a summit in
Feb 7, 2005
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Era of Mahmoud Abbas:
Prospects for Security, Peace, and Reform
If new Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is to succeed, he must deal with the issue of violence. Over the past year, positive changes have emerged in all areas of Palestinian public opinion except one: the role of violence. In the eyes of the public, violence pays. Three-fourths of Palestinians
Feb 7, 2005
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
A Reform Initiative in Jordan:
Trying to Keep Pace with Iraqi and Palestinian Elections
Jordan’s King Abdullah recently announced a major initiative for decentralizing political and fiscal authority in the kingdom by establishing a number of regional assemblies and empowering them with many of the responsibilities currently enjoyed by the parliament and central government. This effort should be viewed as one of the means
Feb 4, 2005
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Northern Iraq Faces Increased Instability in 2005
The Sunni insurgency and the forthcoming constitutional debate in Iraq will start to overlap during 2005, providing an impetus and raison d'etre for continued resistance by militant Sunni groups. Though capable of destabilising and intimidating large tracts of central Iraq, the multi-faceted Sunni resistance does not currently boast the strong
Feb 1, 2005
Articles & Testimony
Hamas and Islamic Jihad Clash over 'Media Jihad'
Matthew Levitt assesses the public perception of and popular support for militant Palestinian organisations. Traditionally, the relationship between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has vacillated between tense rivalry and close cooperation. Over the past four years, however, the two groups cooperated closely with each other -- and with other
Feb 1, 2005
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The Elections and the Insurgency
Iraq's elections will mean many things to many people over time. Nevertheless important results of the historic elections are already clear, or mostly so. The fact that Iraqis in general went to the polls in large numbers is encouraging. But paradoxically the elections may also boost the insurgency's claim to
Jan 31, 2005
◆
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia and Oil:
Coping with the Challenge of Osama bin Laden
On January 26, 2005, Riyadh announced that Prince Nawaf, head of the Saudi General Intelligence Department, had been relieved of his post. The move was not entirely unexpected-the prince has reportedly never fully recovered from a brain hemorrhage he suffered at the 2002 Arab Summit in Beirut. Yet, Riyadh failed
Jan 28, 2005
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Lessons from Mosul
The northern Iraqi city of Mosul and its province Nineveh have become the predominant hub of Sunni Arab insurgent activity, making them one of the areas least likely to be able to host effective polling for the January 30 elections. In the lead-up to the elections, the Multinational Forces (MNF)
Jan 27, 2005
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Hizballah and the Anitglobalization Movement:
A New Coalition?
The World Social Forum (WSF) is currently (January 26–31) convening a Global Anti-War Assembly in Porto Alegre, Brazil, building on its previous conferences attended by thousands of antiglobalization activists from around the globe. Among the issues to be addressed are coordinating actions across borders, determining which tactics to use, finding
Jan 27, 2005
Brief Analysis
Resistance Strategy in the Trans-Election Period (Part II):
Opportunities, Effects, and Implications
The Sunni insurgents in Iraq aim to establish the resistance as the primary political and military expression of the Sunni Arab community. The upcoming elections give them an opportunity to inflict a substantial defeat on the Iraqi government and the United States. Unlike November’s Falluja battle, the insurgents are fighting
Jan 26, 2005
◆
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas
The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves
Jan 26, 2005
◆
Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Hizballah in Turkey Revives:
Al-Qaeda’s Bridge between Europe and Iraq?
On January 12, Turkish police arrested Mehmet Semih Arikan, a member of Hizballah in Turkey, a group not necessarily part and parcel with Lebanese Hizballah, while he was carrying out a reconnaissance mission near the governor's office of Konya province, ten minutes ahead of a scheduled visit by Gen. Fevzi
Jan 25, 2005
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Soner Cagaptay
Emrullah Uslu
Brief Analysis
Bush's Inaugural Address:
Reactions from the Arab and Iranian Press
In his inaugural address on January 20, President George W. Bush declared that "it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." What follows is
Jan 25, 2005
Brief Analysis
Resistance Strategy in the Trans-Election Period (Part I):
Concepts, Operations, and Capabilities
The approach of the January 30 elections in Iraq has focused attention on Sunni resistance activity aimed at disrupting the electoral process. Yet, the increasingly well-organized and more capable Sunni insurgent elements are implementing a broad strategy aimed at establishing themselves as the dominant military and political force in the
Jan 24, 2005
◆
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Elections:
What, How, and Who
Iraq’s elections are ready to go forward, but conditions are “far from ideal” in Kofi Annan’s words, due to the growing insurgency, disagreements within the Shiite community, and the logistical difficulties of Iraq’s first ever-free elections. The soon-to-be-elected Transitional National Assembly will play a vital role in Iraq’s transitional process
Jan 24, 2005
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