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Brief Analysis
Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy
During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise
Oct 11, 2004
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Martin Kramer
Gilles Kepel
Brief Analysis
European Union Suggests Turkey Is Not Quite Ready:
A Window of Opportunity for the United States
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, issued its report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, the union's membership rules that mandate "rule of law, institutions guaranteeing democracy, and respect for minorities." Although the commission praised Turkey's dramatic reform efforts since
Oct 7, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Is the European Union Ready for Turkey?
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, will issue its much-anticipated report on whether Turkey has satisfied the EU's accession rules, the Copenhagen Criteria. The report will serve as a recommendation to the EU Council, the top ministerial body of the union, which
Oct 5, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A Ramadan Offensive in Iraq
Ramadan starts on October 15 or 16, depending on the sighting of the moon. Last year on the first day of Ramadan, five car bombs went off in Baghdad within an hour, including one in front of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) offices. There is a disturbing
Oct 4, 2004
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Al-Qaeda's Armies:
Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror
INTRODUCTION America's "War on Terror" has completely consumed the attention of U.S. foreign policy analysts. Countless man-hours have been expended in the pursuit of sensible policies for what will undoubtedly be a protracted and asymmetrical war. Surprisingly, many analysts have yet to come to the inevitable conclusion that this war
Oct 1, 2004
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
The Palestinian Intifada (Part I):
Palestinian Lessons and Prospects
The Palestinian intifada against Israel, this week entering its fifth year, has wreaked havoc on both Israelis and Palestinians. In Palestinian quarters, it has provoked considerable soul-searching about the wisdom of resorting to terrorism as a tool in the confrontation with Israel. Yasser Arafat remains the Palestinians' paramount political leader
Sep 29, 2004
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Elections in Saudi Arabia:
Assessing the Latest Postponement
Municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, scheduled to begin in November, have been postponed until 2005. Given that these will be the first public political elections ever to take place in the kingdom, their introduction has been keenly watched, both domestically and from abroad. The latest delay, the second since the
Sep 24, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
War in Iraq:
Looking Forward, Looking Back
On September 14, 2004, Michael Eisenstadt and Jeffrey White addressed a Washington Institute Special Policy Forum held in celebration of their forthcoming Institute anthology Operation Iraqi Freedom and the New Iraq: Insights and Forecasts (edited by Michael Knights). Mr. Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at the Institute, specializing in military
Sep 22, 2004
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Michael Eisenstadt
Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Where Goes the U.S.-Turkish Relationship?
Throughout the 1990s, Turkish foreign policy analysts had an easy job. After all, Turkish foreign policy was predictable. Ankara cooperated enthusiastically with Washington, whether in the Middle East or in the Balkans. Turkey aligned itself with Israel and kept at arms length from Middle Eastern neighbors such as Syria and
Sep 21, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Missing Peace:
A Conversation on Middle East Peacemaking
Before peace can be initiated, Israel, the Arab world, and the Palestinians must undergo a change in behavior and, in the case of the latter, find new, legitimate leadership. The Clinton administration was correct to put Yasser Arafat to the test in 2000. During the Camp David talks, even the
Sep 21, 2004
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Gaining Ground—Resistance in Iraq since the Transition (Part II):
Effects and Implications
The effects of resistance operations have been felt in terms of stability and governance, reconstruction, and military security. Sunni resistance has removed some areas from government and coalition control and permitted the emergence of local rule by anticoalition and antigovernment elements. Officials working with the government have been killed, wounded
Sep 17, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Gaining Ground—Resistance in Iraq since the Transition (Part I):
Evolution and Status
The prospects for violence in Iraq were much discussed in the period leading to the June 28, 2004, transition to Iraqi sovereignty. The "smart money" was on the expectation that violence against the transitional government and coalition forces would increase. This has proved to be the case, with Sunni-based resistance
Sep 16, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The IAEA and Iran:
The Perils of Inaction
Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN
Sep 16, 2004
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
China and Oil:
The Middle East Dimension
Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with
Sep 15, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Gaza Pullout Most 'Gut-Wrenching' Move in Israel's History
David Makovsky, a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says despite right-wing opposition, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to remove the roughly 7,600 Jewish settlers in Gaza will go ahead. "I think taking down
Sep 14, 2004
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
A 'Muslim Refusenik' in Pursuit of Reform in Islam
The past several days have witnessed a horrific amount of Islamist international terror, from the slaying of Nepalese workers and the kidnapping of French journalists in Iraq, to the suicide bombings in Israel, to the school massacre in southern Russia. In light of the complex, overlapping nature of these and
Sep 13, 2004
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Irshad Manji
Articles & Testimony
A Delicate Dance in the Mideast
The recent bus bombings in Beersheba reminded Israelis that the lull in suicide attacks in Israel had less to do with the Hamas intention to conduct such acts and more to do with Israel's capability to prevent them. Israel's presence in the West Bank, including continuing raids into cities such
Sep 12, 2004
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
September 11, Three Years On:
The Growing Trend toward Mega-Terror in the Middle East
In recent years, especially since September 11, 2001, several Middle Eastern terrorist groups have shown growing interest in waging mega-terror -- attacks that would kill hundreds, even thousands, of innocent victims, cause mass disruption, and profoundly affect the psychology of the targeted society. While not the first incidents of mega-terror
Sep 10, 2004
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Implications of the 9-11 Report:
Recommendations for U.S. Middle East Policy
Of the 9-11 Commission's forty-one principal recommendations, only one relates directly to the application of military power: namely, the need to eliminate existing terrorist sanctuaries and to prevent the emergence of future safe havens. Indeed, military action is only one of many elements of national policy needed to address the
Sep 10, 2004
Articles & Testimony
Ankara Dispatch:
Eastern Heading
These days, pretty much everything in Turkey seems to focus on the European Union. Leaving a friend's apartment in Istanbul on a sultry evening in August, I came across a street quarrel. Istanbulis park literally anywhere, including the sidewalks. A middle-aged man whose driveway had been blocked by an illegally
Sep 8, 2004
◆
Soner Cagaptay
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