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Brief Analysis
Manipulating Lebanon's Constitution:
Bashar al-Asad's Dangerous Game
In the face of international criticism, Syria strong-armed Lebanon into accepting a constitutional amendment last week that would extend the term of the sitting Lebanese president, Emile Lahoud. Yet, far from being a sign of Damascus's strength against foreign intrusion, this episode should be viewed as further confirmation of the
Sep 7, 2004
Brief Analysis
Despite Party Setbacks, Sharon Accelerates Disengagement Strategy
Despite being rebuffed again by the Likud Party two weeks ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has been undeterred in pursuing disengagement. In publicly broadcast remarks, he informed his fractious parliamentary faction that he was planning to accelerate the timing of his plan for withdrawal from Gaza and four West
Sep 3, 2004
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Republican Party Platform and the Middle East
The 2004 Republican Party platform, "A Safer World and a More Hopeful America," devotes a third of its ninety pages to foreign policy under the heading "Winning the War on Terror." The platform represents a comprehensive summary of the Bush administration's accomplishments and details the philosophy and principles behind the
Sep 2, 2004
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Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
More Danger in the Future with Moqtada al-Sadr
Najaf, after three weeks of fighting, has more or less settled down from a military standpoint. The sometimes-fierce combat has ended. Anti-US Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army has left the streets and the Shrine of Ali is under the control of moderate religious elements. Sadr is again talking rather
Sep 2, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Pakistan:
Roller Coaster Riding with General Musharraf
Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan are an emotional roller-coaster ride. In January of this year,Washington was concerned that President Pervez Musharraf had just narrowly survived two assassination attempts within one month. In February, President Musharraf was balancing relations with Washington and his own domestic political popularity by publicly condemning
Sep 1, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
A Report Whose Tactical and Strategic Goals Don't Square
The Sept. 11 Commission report is a remarkable and important document. The product of a serious and professional staff that enjoyed unprecedented access to highly classified information, the report is rich in information and has already shaped much of the discourse over the upcoming US election. To be sure, the
Aug 30, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Little Impact:
The 9-11 Report and U.S. Middle East Strategy
The 9/11 Commission Report is a remarkable and important document. The product of a serious and professional staff that enjoyed unprecedented access to highly classified information, the report is rich in information and has already shaped much of the discourse over the upcoming US election. To be sure, the report
Aug 26, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Indicting Hamas:
By Disrupting Its Operations, Does the West Become a Target?
Last week, federal authorities in Chicago indicted three senior Hamas members—two of whom were arrested in the United States, while the third remains at large in Syria—on charges of racketeering and (in the case of one defendant) providing material support to terrorists. The indictment marks a watershed in the prosecution
Aug 26, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The Latest Challenge from al-Sadr (Part II):
Implications and Outlook
Muqtada al-Sadr has placed the Interim Iraqi Government in a difficult position, forcing it to demonstrate both strength and skill. His challenge exploits the political and military seams between the interim government and the coalition, and within the Iraqi political system. He has also exploited popular hostility toward the coalition
Aug 17, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The Latest Challenge from al-Sadr (Part I):
Background and Context
The fractious and dangerous Iraqi Shi'i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is once again attempting to foment a rebellion. In scenes virtually identical to those of his April-May 2004 uprising, his militia is in the streets, Shi'is are demonstrating en masse, and he is alternately talking peace and vowing to fight to
Aug 17, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Inside the Zarqawi Network
At least 13 Iraqis were killed in fighting with U.S. soldiers in the Iraqi city of Falluja on July 30, part of the ongoing U.S. offensive against fighters loyal to Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the man Bush administration officials claim is the most dangerous terrorist in Iraq today. Critics, however
Aug 16, 2004
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
The Threat of Jewish Terror in Israel and the West Bank
In 1995, Jewish extremist Yigal Amir caught Israeli society off guard when he assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in an effort to derail the Labor government's pursuit of a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Today, Israeli society is coming to terms with a similarly acute Jewish extremist threat
Aug 9, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The 9-11 Commission Report:
The Middle East Dimension
The 9-11 Commission has received much media attention for its findings on the al-Qaeda threat. The commission's documents detail information on Middle Eastern states and terrorist groups. Below is a summary of some of the report's findings on the roles key regional actors played in the growth, setbacks, and evolution
Aug 6, 2004
Brief Analysis
Arafat Survives for Now, Amid Divided Fatah Opposition
With Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) rescinding his recent resignation without gaining any meaningful control over disparate security forces, PA Chairman Yasir Arafat can claim to have won the latest round in the power struggle taking place inside the West Bank and Gaza. Arafat's success
Aug 6, 2004
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
The Hand of Bandar?
As everyone knows, Saudis, if not Saudi Arabia, were central to the horrific events of September 11, 2001. Fifteen out of 19 hijackers were Saudi, plus the Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, (from whom the kingdom withdrew citizenship in the 1990s). What is perhaps surprising therefore is that Saudi Arabia is
Aug 5, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Lessons from the Front Line in the Battle for 'Hearts and Minds':
My Two Years in Morocco
Morocco is a nation of nearly 30 million people, part Arab, part Berber, and overwhelmingly Muslim, yet distant enough from Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian arena so that those issues, while relevant, are not all-consuming. Hence, it provides an excellent vantage point from which to assess the ideological battle between radical
Aug 2, 2004
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Lessons of Oslo's Failure Must Be Learned for Peace to Bloom
Nobody spent more time with Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat during the years of the Oslo peace process than I did. Why didn't I see that he was incapable of ending the conflict with Israel? Certainly there were those who claimed he could not be trusted and would never make
Aug 1, 2004
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Sadrist Revolt Provides Lessons for Counterinsurgency in Iraq
The first serious challenge to Coalition forces in Iraq from Shiite elements began on 4 April 2004. Moqtada al-Sadr's organisation and its militia, the Mahdi Army, initiated demonstrations and attacks on Coalition forces and facilities in Baghdad's Sadr City and across southern Iraq. Coinciding with the siege of Falluja and
Aug 1, 2004
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The al-Qaeda Challenge to Saudi Arabia
As a result of the 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the al-Qaeda network now consists of small, local, and autonomous affiliate groups that attack domestic and Western targets alike. Ties between affiliate groups and the former al-Qaeda core is largely informal. For example, recent attacks have been claimed by affiliates
Jul 29, 2004
◆
Jonathan Schanzer
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Fragmentation:
Case Study of Jenin and Nablus
One of the most serious implications of four years of incessant violence and terrorism is the fragmentation of Palestinian society. Notwithstanding the debate over the impact of the Israeli presence in the territories, Palestinian quality of life cannot improve without radical reform in the structure of the Palestinian Authority (PA)
Jul 28, 2004
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