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Brief Analysis
Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation and U.S. Policy
Recent media reports suggest that rogue Pakistani scientists have been peddling nuclear secrets across the Middle East for many years. The revelation offsets recent good news from the region -- Iran's acceptance of nuclear inspections and Libya's agreement to give up weapons of mass destruction. The spread of nuclear secrets
Jan 12, 2004
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Turkish Rapprochement With Middle East Rogue States?
Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul will make an official visit to Tehran on January 10. This visit comes on the heels of a January 68 trip to Turkey by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad -- the first ever by a Syrian head of state -- during which Asad was showered with
Jan 9, 2004
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Reversing the Tragedy of Weak Arab Development
Friends of the Arabs can but mourn the transformation of the Middle East from an advanced and powerful region arguably ahead of Europe to a backward state. It is sobering to realize that as recently as the 1930s, there was no Arab development deficit. At that time, Alexandria was more
Jan 8, 2004
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Europe, Syria, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's January 6 interview with London's Daily Telegraph -- in which he indicated that Syria would not relinquish its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities until Israel did so also -- suggests that Syria is not likely to follow Libya's recent example of foregoing WMD in order
Jan 8, 2004
Brief Analysis
Hamas's Political Wing:
Terror by Other Means
On January 5, 2004, the council of Arab interior ministers concluded its twenty-first session in Tunis by renewing its "strong condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and sources." The question remains whether this condemnation will lead to action against Hamas, including its political leadership. The Role of Hamas's Political
Jan 6, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The Hizballah Threat in Africa
On December 25, 2003, Union Transport Africaines (UTA) Flight 141 bound for Beirut crashed on take-off from Cotonou, Benin, in West Africa. According to accounts in the Arab press, a "foreign relations official of the African branch of the Lebanese Hizballah party and two of his aides" were among those
Jan 2, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Hamas from Cradle to Grave
Over the past three years, the United States has uncovered just how systematically terrorist groups conceal their activities behind charitable, social, and political fronts. Investigators, faced with the threat posed by Al-Qa‘ida and its many affiliates, have come to appreciate the crucial role played by charities, foundations, and individual donors
Jan 1, 2004
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action
Excerpted from Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, ed. Patrick Clawson and Henry Sokolski (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2004), pp. 113–128. For some U.S. policymakers and military planners, Israel's 1981 raid on Iraq's Osiraq nuclear reactor may serve as an object lesson regarding the potential benefits of preventive military action against
Jan 1, 2004
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Responding to Iran's Nuclear Challenge
Delay is Victory
The late 2003 IAEA deal at its best addresses only a small part of the Iranian nuclear proliferation threat; at its worst, the deal could become a significant obstacle to responding to the Iranian nuclear threat. The test will come over time -- which is convenient for the Bush administration
Jan 1, 2004
Articles & Testimony
The Prospects for Nuclear 'Roll Back' in Iran
Although it may not be feasible now or in the near future, the U.S. should not exclude the possibility at some future date of nuclear roll back in Iran -- particularly in light of Libya -- s recent surprise decision to scrap its nuclear, chemical, and ballistic missile programs. Since
Jan 1, 2004
Articles & Testimony
Ansar al-Islam:
Back in Iraq
Months before the Iraq war of 2003, The New Yorker, Christian Science Monitor, and The New York Times published reports about Ansar al-Islam (“Partisans of Islam”), a brutal band of al-Qa‘ida guerrillas based in a Kurdish area of northern Iraq near the Iranian border. U.S. officials pointed to Ansar al-Islam
Jan 1, 2004
◆
Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
Waging the War on Terror:
Are the Saudis Starting to Turn the Corner?
MATTHEW LEVITT In the wake of the al-Qaeda attacks in Riyadh in May and November 2003, the Saudis have made significant progress toward stemming the flow of funds to terrorists. Though bold and welcome, the Saudi measures still fall short of transforming the kingdom from the "epicenter" of terrorist financing
Dec 31, 2003
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Matthew Levitt
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Trying a Tyrant:
Should the Iraqis Alone Sit in Judgment of Saddam?
RUTH WEDGWOOD The question of whether Saddam Husayn should be tried by an international tribunal or by an Iraqi court has been widely discussed lately. The International Criminal Court (ICC), to which the United States has long objected, does not have jurisdiction for such a trial; it can only consider
Dec 30, 2003
Brief Analysis
Trading Terrorists:
Al-Qaeda in Iran for Mujahedin in Iraq?
On December 9, 2003, the Iraqi Governing Council announced that it would expel the Iranian opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) from Iraq. Reacting to this decision, Paul Bremer, administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority, recently told Iraqi television that MEK members should be settled in other countries with the help
Dec 30, 2003
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Raymond Tanter
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Palestinians:
An End-of-Year Assessment (Part II)
Although neither the Israeli mainstream nor the Palestinian public has accepted the Geneva Accord, its principles have had a profound effect on both societies. For the Palestinians, core existential issues are now subject to debate in an unprecedented way. For example, as one Fatah official pointed out, Palestinians have been
Dec 29, 2003
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Tracking Libya's Nuclear Activities
Besides dismantling a dangerous program, the IAEA's efforts in Libya may also expose the international network of nuclear cooperation that enabled this infrastructure to develop as far as it has.
Dec 29, 2003
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Palestinians:
An End-of-Year Assessment (Part I)
In 2003, a new debate is underway about the future of Israel. The question is not about whether a grand deal with the Palestinians is possible; now the debate focuses on the political implications of current demographic trends that reflect a sharp increase in the region's Palestinian population. Within a
Dec 23, 2003
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
American Schools abroad Have a Big Part to Play
Like legions of other proud parents, my wife and I sat beaming in the audience earlier this month, video camera in hand, as our son Benji, 6, stood with his fellow first-graders on the stage of his school auditorium and sang a medley of holiday songs. The adorably cute, multicultural
Dec 23, 2003
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
In Defense of a Fence
After years of frustration in which persistent Palestinian terrorism has held peace negotiations hostage, a security fence may be the first step toward disengagement and a precondition for resuming any political process.
Dec 19, 2003
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Uzi Dayan
Articles & Testimony
Living in the Past:
Saddam's Present and Future
Saddam Hussein's dejected look as an U.S. Army medic looked in his hair for lice will go down in history. His expression of puzzlement, just a few hours after his capture on Saturday night, was, as they say, a picture. Indeed, it has since appeared on the cover of a
Dec 17, 2003
◆
Simon Henderson
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