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Brief Analysis
Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I):
The Impact in the Kingdom
Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please
Dec 9, 2002
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Tale of Two Qatars
The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East. Qatar's strategic importance extends well beyond this exercise. The
Dec 6, 2002
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
Dec 5, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two:
Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was
Dec 3, 2002
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David Makovsky
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Keeping al-Qaeda Out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S
Dec 3, 2002
Articles & Testimony
Voices Who Speak for (and against) Us
From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslims tuning into television after breaking Ramadan fasts this month are viewing a smorgasbord of U.S.-funded advertisements praising religious tolerance in America. Designed to highlight an appealing attribute of U.S. society, these 30-second spots seem harmless, though most likely ineffectual in countering anti-Americanism. On closer inspection
Dec 1, 2002
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The November 2002 Elections and Turkey's New Political Era
On November 3, 2002, the Turks went to the polls to elect their new government. The elections ushered in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, bringing the Justice and Development Party (AKP)--a party with an Islamist pedigree--to power. The AKP received 34.2 percent of the vote, winning 363
Dec 1, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Political Economy of Middle East Terrorism
Political terrorism, often sponsored by states, has long been a major factor in Middle East politics. Terrorist groups' ability to act more frequently and effectively is closely linked to financing. Such patronage today, however, is proportionately less in the hands of state sponsors. While Iran and Syria continue to back
Dec 1, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Sponsoring Terrorism:
Syria and Islamic Jihad
This is the third in a series of MEIB studies on Syrian ties to extremist groups listed by the US State Department as terrorist organizations. The first two articles addressed the PFLP-GC and Hamas. An article on Syrian relations with Hezbollah was published in the February 2002 issue. Ramadan Abdullah
Dec 1, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The New Cabinet in Turkey:
Who is Who?
On November 28, the newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will present its twenty-five cabinet members to the Turkish Parliament for a vote of confidence. With eleven fewer members than the outgoing cabinet, the new cabinet represents AKP's commitment to smaller government. In addition to six names from
Nov 27, 2002
Brief Analysis
Turkey Has Been Successful As the Leader of the International Force in Afghanistan
ISAF's Mandate The creation of ISAF was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1386 in December 2001. The United Kingdom served as the first lead nation until Turkey took over command on June 20, 2002; the Turkish mandate was granted by Resolution 1413, which extended ISAF's authorization until December 20
Nov 27, 2002
Brief Analysis
Sharon Leads Netanyahu before the Likud Primary
On Thursday, an estimated 300,000 members of Israel's Likud Party will head to the polls and decide whether they want Prime Minister Ariel Sharon or Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as their party leader. This contest has special importance because current polls show that the Likud winner is likely to emerge
Nov 26, 2002
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Envisioning a Post-Saddam Iraqi Military
Retraining and reorganizing the Iraqi military and eliminating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will be vital tasks in the wake of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Yet, political change is a prerequisite for military change, and neglecting the former could pose disastrous consequences for the latter. Specifically, the United States
Nov 25, 2002
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Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
Articles & Testimony
World Should Confront Terrorist Haven of Syria
Palestinian terrorists ambushed a convoy of Israelis in Hebron on Nov. 15, killing 12 and wounding 16. Despite their denials, Syria is fully aware that its Palestinian proxy groups plan, fund and order such attacks from Damascus headquarters. Condemning the attack, Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "It is impossible
Nov 25, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Full Democracy May Not Be an Answer for Mideast
A false debate has broken out between those who say a key goal of any attack against Iraq would be the creation of an Iraqi democracy and those who believe the world is ultimately more secure if reliable authoritarians can be found in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East
Nov 24, 2002
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Jordan's War Worries:
Saddamistan, Palestinians, and Islamism in the Hashemite Kingdom
Last week's Jordanian government raid on the southern city of Maan was likely a tactic designed to insulate the kingdom from the possible repercussions of a U.S.-led war in Iraq. Indeed, the incident in Maan was a microcosm of larger Jordanian problems stemming from pro-Iraq, Palestinian, and Islamist opposition elements
Nov 22, 2002
◆
Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
Toward Renewed Weapons Inspections in Iraq?
UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1441, adopted after weeks of diplomatic aerobics, authorized renewed weapons inspections in Iraq and outlined a timetable for the inspections process, with mandatory deadlines for Iraqi compliance. UNSCR 1441's popularity is remarkable: the United States, Russia, France, and Syria all like it, and even Iraq
Nov 20, 2002
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Reformist Blues, Economic Woes
Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the
Nov 19, 2002
Brief Analysis
Israel's Labor Party Likely to Choose New Face
Tomorrow, approximately 100,000 members of the Israeli Labor Party will vote for their new leader. The winner will serve as the party's standard-bearer for the national elections on January 28, 2003. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, the winner of tomorrow's contest will be Haifa mayor Amram Mitzna. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer—Mitzna's main rival
Nov 18, 2002
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Challenges for the Justice and Development Party Government in Turkey
The Turkish parliament will meet tomorrow for its first session since the elections of November 3, in which a party with an Islamist pedigree -- the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) -- secured a majority, winning 363 of 550 seats (the social-democratic Republican People's Party [CHP] is the only
Nov 13, 2002
◆
Soner Cagaptay
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