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Brief Analysis
Business and Politics in Post-Erbakan Turkey
The mood in post-Erbakan Turkey is one of calm after a storm. For a comprehensive understanding of Turkey's problems, a critical, non-ideological assessment of the pro-Islamist Refah (Welfare) Party is needed. Despite its existence since 1969, Refah truly emerged as a political force only in 1995. Receiving some 21 percent
Dec 2, 1997
Articles & Testimony
Business Follows Stability
In the Middle East, money talks -- but not as loudly as politics. That's the lesson to be learned from the Middle East/North Africa economic summit, which concluded late last month in Doha, Qatar, under the shadow of the Iraq crisis. For Washington, the two events are connected, with the
Dec 1, 1997
Brief Analysis
Confronting Saddam:
The Challenge Ahead
In confronting the UN Special Commission for the Disarmament of Iraq (UNSCOM), Saddam has two apparently contradictory goals: keeping his weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and lifting the UN sanctions on Iraq. According to UN Resolution 687, Iraq was required to provide a full and final disclosure concerning its WMD
Nov 26, 1997
Brief Analysis
Oil, Business, and the Future of Iraqi Sanctions
The most recent episode of the ongoing Iraq saga ended last week with at least one permanent member of the UN Security Council-Russia-committing itself to work for the end of UN sanctions, especially the oil export ban. Other Council members (e.g., France, China and Egypt) have also voiced strong support
Nov 24, 1997
Brief Analysis
The Doha Conference:
A Post-Mortem
With the world focused on the UN-Iraqi standoff, the fourth annual Middle East/North Africa (MENA) Economic Conference concluded quietly in Qatar earlier this week. As Arab world heavyweights Egypt and Saudi Arabia officially boycotted the proceedings, the MENA summit ended on an ambivalent note: Though viewed as a general success
Nov 21, 1997
◆
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Brief Analysis
The Iraq Outcome:
A Hollow Victory for U.S. Policy
To the Clinton Administration, the Iraq crisis appears headed toward a satisfactory outcome. As a result of the UN Security Council's unanimous condemnation of Iraq and imposition of additional (if modest) new sanctions, Saddam seems to have succumbed to the will of the international community, with UNSCOM inspectors soon returning
Nov 20, 1997
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Military Action against Iraq:
Critical Considerations
As Secretary of State Madeleine Albright prepares to meet with the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Russia tonight in Geneva to discuss a possible diplomatic solution to the standoff between Iraq and the UN, Washington continues preparations for a military option: the U.S.S. George Washington carrier battle group is
Nov 19, 1997
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Crisis with Iraq:
Options for U.S. Policy
Saddam Husayn probably had several motives in seeking to disrupt UN weapons inspections. First, he sought to undermine the effectiveness of the UN weapons inspectors, if not expel them altogether, because they are the main obstacle to his efforts to transform Iraq into a regional power. Second, Saddam currently has
Nov 18, 1997
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
The Luxor Shootout and Egypt's Armed Islamist Opposition
The explosion of violence this morning in Luxor, which left 64 civilians dead and 25 wounded, gives renewed indication that the battle between the government of Egypt and militants who seek its overthrow is far from over. It remains to be seen whether a broader crackdown by Egyptian security forces
Nov 17, 1997
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Jon B. Alterman
Brief Analysis
On Sadat and Rabin
"Both [President Sadat and Prime Minister Rabin] were leaders in the sense that they understood the responsibility they had to lead their people, not to be led by their public opinions, not to be constrained by them, but rather to get out ahead of them and to try to change
Nov 14, 1997
Brief Analysis
The Doha Summit:
A 'Virtual Conference'
Against the backdrop of a brewing confrontation with Iraq, Secretary of State Albright travels to the nearby state of Qatar later this week to talk about regional economic development. Despite Albright's presence, many Arab countries—including regional leaders Egypt and Saudi Arabia—have declared that they will boycott the fourth annual Middle
Nov 11, 1997
Brief Analysis
Inaugural Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture
During the Cold War, Turkey played a vital role as the southeast bastion of NATO. However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, a new configuration in the Middle East has emerged, one that has actually increased Turkey's importance in the region. The
Nov 11, 1997
Brief Analysis
Removing Syria from the Narcotics List:
A Signal to Damascus?
In a region where subtle messages often serve as political discourse, the Clinton Administration may be communicating to Syria that the United States is changing its approach to Damascus. One step the Administration is considering is especially likely to send such a signal: declaring that Syria is no longer a
Nov 10, 1997
Brief Analysis
Jordan:
Politics, Peace Process, and Election Preview
This marks the third parliamentary election since 1989 and the first since the Jordan-Israel peace treaty. It is important to recall three principles when evaluating the parliamentary experience in Jordan: 1) Democratization has been, from its origin, instrumental-i.e., it was meant to serve other goals. The reconvening of parliament in
Nov 6, 1997
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Between Words and Action:
Gaps in U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policy
The growing confrontation between the United Nations and Iraq focuses on American participation in U.N. weapons inspections. However, this crisis with a charter member of the State Department's list of state-sponsors of international terrorism can also be viewed through the prism of Washington's flagging efforts to contain rogue states, in
Nov 4, 1997
In-Depth Reports
The Jews of the West Bank and Gaza and the Peace Process
A demographic profile of Jews living in the West Bank and Gaza, written by the head of the Settlements Division at the World Zionist Organization. It examines the settlement policies of various Israeli administrations since 1967 as well as the motivations -- political and ideological -- of the settlers themselves
Nov 1, 1997
Brief Analysis
Responding to Iraq:
Crises and Opportunities
On Wednesday, Iraq announced that the American inspectors of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) had one week to leave the country. For good measure, Baghdad demanded that UNSCOM cease using American U-2 spy planes as part of its efforts to enforce the dismantling of Iraq's weapons of
Oct 31, 1997
◆
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy and Chinese Proliferation to Iran:
A Small Leap Forward?
Iran has been a key issue in this week's U.S.-China summit. Two weeks ago, Beijing promised to halt the transfer of antiship missiles to Iran and, in the run-up to the summit, the Chinese provided written assurances to Washington that it will not initiate any new nuclear cooperation with Iran
Oct 31, 1997
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Violations of UN Resolutions since the Gulf War
Iraq's announcement yesterday banning the participation of U.S. citizens in future inspection missions of the UN Special Commission investigating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program is the latest in a long series of Iraqi challenges to the UN Security Council. Since the end of the Gulf War, however, the Security
Oct 30, 1997
Brief Analysis
A 'Kinder, Gentler' Hamas?
Hamas Leaders on the Record
Since the attempted assassination of Hamas leader Khalid Mish'al in Jordan and the release of Hamas founder and spiritual leader Shaykh Ahmed Yassin, many observers have predicted that Hamas may have moderated its message, possibly offering itself as a potential partner for peace. However, since Shaykh Yassin outlined a "temporary
Oct 27, 1997
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