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Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammed Shia al-Sudani?
A closer look at the new prime minister’s political career, past affiliations, and key cabinet picks as he attempts to balance relations with pro-Iran groups and wary U.S. officials.
Nov 18, 2022
◆
May Kadow
Erik Yavorsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Could Iraqis Gain from Their Oil Windfall?
Although Iraq stands to gain significant revenues from an oil windfall, urgent reforms are needed to ensure these funds benefit the people, not just the elites.
Nov 18, 2022
◆
Mohammed Hussein
Brief Analysis
A Politically Challenging World Cup for Iran
Instead of attracting tourists, boosting the economy, and rallying Iranians around the flag, this year’s tournament could turn into a Pyrrhic victory for the regime given its dire political situation at home.
Nov 18, 2022
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Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Gulf Rivalries and the Qatar World Cup
Nearly two years after Gulf neighbors put a splint on their diplomatic fracture with Doha, persistent tensions and historic quarrels will form a major part of the competition’s backdrop.
Nov 17, 2022
◆
Simon Henderson
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.
Nov 17, 2022
◆
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting
A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.
Nov 15, 2022
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable
Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.
Nov 15, 2022
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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros
Articles & Testimony
Why Israel Is Hesitant About Supplying Ukraine with Air Defense Systems
Jerusalem remains concerned that angering the Russians could jeopardize its crucial national security interests in Syria, though domestic elements and U.S. officials are still pressing it to do more.
Nov 15, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq’s ‘Armed Protest Syndrome’: From a Clash of Ideas to Violence
In order to restore the stability and authority of the Iraqi state, the Sudani government must endeavor to end the years-long connection between protests and reciprocal violence.
Nov 14, 2022
◆
Abbas Abboud Salem
Brief Analysis
The Sectarian Shadow Over Bahrain’s Election
The results will indicate how the Sunni government is managing its majority Shia citizenry.
Nov 10, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Re-evaluating Turkish Nationalism: A Bulwark Against the Religious Establishment
While the past few decades saw a dip in any political references to Turkey’s founder, opposition groups and the AKP alike have returned to Atatürk as a key political symbol of nationalism ahead of the elections.
Nov 10, 2022
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M. Bahadırhan Dinçaslan
Articles & Testimony
What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War
Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.
Nov 10, 2022
◆
Michael Knights
Alex Almeida
Brief Analysis
Biden Heads to Egypt Amid Economic Protests and Libyan Gridlock
Although climate issues will by definition headline the latest COP summit, Egypt’s human rights record, simmering protest movement, and questionable policies in neighboring Libya will provide plenty of additional fodder for Biden’s discussions with Sisi.
Nov 10, 2022
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David Schenker
Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Oil Exports Are Vulnerable to Sanctions
Iran continues to export significant volumes of oil, providing a key source of revenue for the regime—and a potential target for increased economic pressure.
Nov 9, 2022
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Henry Rome
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
In 2022 Polls, Views on U.S. Relations On Par with Other World Powers in the Middle East
Regional polls from March and August reveal shifting power dynamics, as economic conditions and relations with Israel continue to weigh on citizens’ minds.
Nov 9, 2022
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Frances McDonough
Brief Analysis
MENA Countries Stand to Lose the Most If the Ukraine Grain Initiative Falters
Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other assistance as counter-leverage.
Nov 8, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Louis Dugit-Gros
Sabina Henneberg
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Demonize USAID After U.S. Citizen Gunned Down in Baghdad
Media outlets run by Iran-backed groups have justified the killing by claiming that the targeted civilian was a spy.
Nov 8, 2022
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Formation of Iraq’s New Government Is a Major Victory for Iran and Its Allies
Although framed as a government of solidarity between Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish factions, the Sudani government in Iraq gives Iran a significant arena in which to wield its influence.
Nov 8, 2022
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Nawzad Shukri
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Future of al-Jawlani’s Pragmatism in Idlib and Afrin
Despite years of overhauling HTS’s global reputation, al-Jawlani’s strategy in northwest Syria has long been driven by opportunism instead of ideology.
Nov 8, 2022
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Yilmaz Saeed
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
MbS and Saudi Arabia’s Israel Policy: What Can We Expect from the New Prime Minister?
As Prime Minister, MbS won't throw out the Arab Peace Initiative altogether, but he will likely reframe it.
Nov 7, 2022
◆
Aziz Alghashian
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