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Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration's Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part II):
Regional Dynamics
In Lebanon, the Bush Administration's regional policy of "constructive instability" is approaching a critical juncture, with important decisions looming about how the further implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 relates to other U.S. strategic interests. More generally, the policy is having an effect throughout the region, from the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration’s Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part I):
Lebanon and Syria
The Bush Administration's policy of "constructive instability" in the Middle East is facing a critical juncture in Lebanon. Taking advantage of a rare confluence of events and international interests, President George W. Bush has focused U.S. efforts on one plank of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 -- the withdrawal
۱۵ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Arrest of Saudi Reformers One Year On
A year ago, on March 16, 2004, the Saudi authorities arrested thirteen reformist intellectuals, including one university academic who was reportedly taken away in handcuffs in front of his class. Three days later the arrests were an issue taken up by then Secretary of State Colin Powell when he arrived
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
March to Modernity
If countries could be vegetables, Turkey would be an onion. Every time you take off a layer of skin, hoping to get to the core, you come across yet another skin. In The Turks Today, Andrew Mango successfully peels modern Turkey to its core. Most people who have rubbed elbows
۱۳ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
What Role for the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria’s Future?
In calling for a demonstration in Damascus on March 10, Haitham Maleh, an opposition figure with close connections to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, proclaimed, “We are 85 percent of the country”—an apparent gesture of solidarity against Syria’s ruling Alawite minority. The group of about 100 demonstrators who answered his call
۱۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Michael Jacobson
Brief Analysis
After the Hariri Assassination:
Syria, Lebanon, and U.S. Policy
When Bashar al-Asad assumed power in 2001, there was widespread optimism that he would, by virtue of his British education and Western outlook, modernize the Syrian government and expand individual and political rights. Yet, after a short period of preliminary change, dubbed the "Damascus Spring," Asad proved unwilling or unable
۱۰ مارس ۲۰۰۵
Brief Analysis
Saudi Elections in Regional Perspective:
The Shiite 'Threat' Theory
The most significant area of Saudi Arabia affected by the March 3 municipal elections was the enormous Eastern Province, which contains most of the kingdom's vast oil wealth and serves as home to its minority Shiite population. Unsurprisingly, local Shiites triumphed in several towns, winning nearly all of the seats
۹ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon
The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria’s
۸ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Michael Herzog
Iran and Syria:
State Sponsorship in the Age of Terror Networks
The following lecture was published as a chapter in Confronting Terrorism Financing, American Foreign Policy Council (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 2005). The age of “network terrorism” results from the loosely affiliated networks that, taken together, form the potent international terrorist threat that challenges Western civilization today. Such networks
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Changing Turkish Public Attitudes toward the United States:
Premises and Prospects
American and Turkish media have been awash recently with news of increased Turkish resentment toward the United States. Media coverage has focused on negative portrayals of U.S. foreign policy in Turkey, including recent opinion polls such as a January 19 BBC survey, according to which 82 percent of Turks oppose
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Bashar al-Asad's Fateful Speech:
A Policy of Inconsistency and Paranoia
With international pressure rising for a full and speedy Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad responded with a speech to his nation's rubber-stamp parliament on Saturday, March 5, that was a blend of defiance and conciliation, leavened with inconsistency and paranoia. If one of Asad's tasks was
۷ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Bush, Europe, and the Middle East:
Analyzing the Visit
There is a consensus in Europe that President George W. Bush's visit marks a transition after three difficult years of transatlantic relations. Europe cannot ignore this administration for another four years. Rather, it is in Europe's best interests to work with President Bush, because Europeans see the Middle East as
۴ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Michael Jacobson
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Authority Minister of Economy Tied to Hamas?
On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. Often described as technocratic and progressive, the cabinet is widely seen as fitting the Bush administration’s requirement of being “untainted by terror.” Indeed, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice highlighted the new
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
An Opening in the Mideast
President Bush declared in Europe that the world cannot rest until there is peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Certainly he knew that Europeans would welcome such words. But I suspect this was less a tactical gesture to the Europeans and more a statement of intent, reflecting his commitment to act
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Newly Approved Security Fence Route:
Geography and Demography
Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved modified routing of the security fence, the first officially sanctioned changes since the cabinet approved construction in October 2003. The modifications, prompted by an Israeli supreme court decision last summer made to avert Palestinian hardship, are characterized by four major adjustments: (1) revised routing
۳ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Next Steps in Lebanon:
Key Variables in the Growing Confrontation with Syria
The fall of the Omar Karami cabinet in Beirut on February 28 marked an important development in the brewing confrontation between an energized civil society in Lebanon and the country's Syrian-backed government. While Damascus will likely try to staunch the bleeding of its occupation of Lebanon by redeploying troops—and perhaps
۲ مارس ۲۰۰۵
Articles & Testimony
Arab-Israeli Futures:
Next Steps for the United States
The attached PDF contains papers on U.S. policy and the Middle East Peace Process, authored by David Makovsky, Robert Malley and Steven Spiegel. They are first contribution to the United States Institute of Peace's (USIP) research project on "Arab-Israeli Futures." These papers offer a range of policy options for the
۲ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Lebanon's Lesson for Arab Leaders
On Monday in Beirut, despite a ban on public demonstrations, 25,000 people took to the streets, chanted "Syria out" and triggered the resignation of the pro-Syrian prime minister and his government. Since the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister, on February 14, the Lebanese people—Christians, Muslims and Druze—have
۲ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Amerika, Türkiye’yi kaybetmek istemez; ama...
(America does not want to lose Turkey, but…)
WASHINGTON - Soner Çagaptay’a göre, ABD için Türkiye hâlâ gözde. Ama, Türkiye’deki Amerikan aleyhtarligindan kaygi duyuyor. Türkiye’nin destegi ABD’nin hareket alanini genisletiyor. Isler Türkiye’siz de oluyor; ama Türkiye ile daha kolay... Gelecek 5-10 yilda Amerikan ordusunda en aktif görev alacak subaylar, 1 Mart tezkeresinden öTürkiye’ye kizginlik duyanlar olacak.
۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Multi-Pronged Strategy to Defeat Hamas
Now that the Israeli government has voted to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank, the key challenge is to stop those who oppose any peace agreement. Despite Friday’s lethal bombing in Tel Aviv by Islamic Jihad, the chief among these groups remains Hamas, the Islamic rejectionist
۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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David Makovsky
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