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Brief Analysis
Washington Returns to Damascus with High Stakes for Syria’s Transition
The delegation’s findings on key political and security issues will have a major impact on future U.S. engagement with Syria’s new leaders, including the decision on whether or not to remove sanctions.
Dec 20, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Building a Post-Assad Syria: How to Ensure the Process Reflects the Will of the People
Syrian civil society figures join a former U.S. official to discuss local sentiments on the ground and assess the daunting challenges of building a better state.
Dec 20, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Ibrahim Al-Assil
Farouq Habib
Rafif Jouejati
Mahmoud Meslat
Video
Articles & Testimony
The Syria Breakdown, Episode One: Why Assad Fell
In the first episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Syria analyst Andrew Tabler explains the domestic and foreign factors that led to the Assad government’s rapid demise.
Dec 19, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Must Not Abandon Syria
Trump says Syria is a “mess” that America should leave alone, but that would be far more dangerous than staying.
Dec 19, 2024
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Fall of Assad: Rejoice, Repel, Reach Out
Prompt military action is helping Israel counter the immediate security risks of Syria’s sudden upheaval, but additional efforts will be needed to seize the broader opportunities of this new era.
Dec 18, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
How Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Landed on U.S. Terrorist Lists—and Why It Should Stay There for Now
Although some near-term waivers should be issued to help untangle the complicated web of designations and facilitate humanitarian aid, any broader delisting of HTS, Jolani, and others needs to be earned, not gifted.
Dec 17, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Did Assad’s Fall in Syria Really Weaken Russia?
Moscow is already taking steps to ensure that it can continue confounding U.S. interests in Ukraine and Syria even if the outcomes on these fronts wind up differently than expected.
Dec 17, 2024
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025
Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.
Dec 16, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hashem al-Haidari Calls for Preemptive Actions Against U.S. Embassy
One of Iran's most trusted lieutenants in the Iraqi militia scene is loudly rattling his saber against the U.S. presence in the Middle East.
Dec 16, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Militia-Led Communications Commission Clamps Down on Press Coverage of Security Issues
The CMC's latest restrictions on press freedoms indicate that Iran-backed groups fear they could be ousted from power much like Bashar al-Assad next door.
Dec 16, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Ameer al-Kaabi
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Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Not Yet Trust Syria’s New Regime
Even as they celebrate the demise of Assad’s dictatorship, U.S. officials should take a “verify, don’t trust” approach to HTS, judging the group by its actions on the ground before considering the removal of sanctions.
Dec 13, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria
To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias.
Dec 13, 2024
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Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
Dec 12, 2024
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Emergence of Two Distinct Jihadist Ways of War
Comparing the offensive that toppled Assad with the Islamic State's 2014 campaign in Iraq shows how HTS has innovated its approach by mixing old and new tactics.
Dec 12, 2024
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Ido Levy
Articles & Testimony
The US Must Push Putin Out the Syrian Door
To prevent Russia from cutting permanent deals with the rebels or otherwise salvaging its defeat, Washington must take the reins of the coming transition process.
Dec 12, 2024
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Trump Can’t Sit This One Out
Despite his latest tweets about staying out of the Syria crisis, Trump has a history of working with Turkey on these issues and has several carrots to offer HTS as well.
Dec 11, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
For Israel, a Strategic Win and New Headaches
Despite the welcome blow to Iran's axis, Israel’s must now protect its border communities in the Golan and ensure that the Assad regime's strategic weapons don't end up in the wrong hands.
Dec 11, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
Dec 11, 2024
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Zohar Palti
Articles & Testimony
What to Know About the Man Who Toppled Assad
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has worked for years to rebrand himself, but has he truly broken from his extremist past?
Dec 11, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous
The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.
Dec 10, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
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