All Policy Analysis by Omer Carmi

Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.

To prevent the agency from issuing a noncompliance resolution, Tehran has been threatening to impede inspections, but this approach could easily backfire on the regime.

Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.

His remarks focused on inspiring the nation to stay strong in the face of the crisis while refusing to trust U.S. aid, though without mentioning his normal laundry list of foreign policy issues.

Khamenei’s latest high-profile speech may indicate his growing confidence that Iran can cope with U.S. pressure and set a high bar for resuming talks.

While Tehran’s internal debate about engagement with Washington intensifies, its words and actions already seem to be shaping—even unintentionally—the terms of any future talks.

Hoping to pressure Europe into providing more concessions, Tehran may threaten to reduce its commitments under the nuclear deal, but can it avoid escalation with Washington while doing so?

Although Tehran refrained from using its annual ‘Nuclear Day’ to threaten a wholesale breakout, it seems determined to push the West’s boundaries on centrifuge technology and other issues.

The regime has repeatedly avoided precipitous responses to U.S. sanctions, and it will be even more risk-averse today due to its domestic flood crisis and fears of broader escalation.

As Tehran’s economic patience grows thinner, it may try to exploit holes in the nuclear deal as a way of pressuring the West, but this strategy could prove to be a double-edged sword.

The identity of the assailants remains unresolved, but precedent suggests Iran could respond by targeting minorities at home, assassinating oppositionists abroad, or attempting missile strikes on jihadist areas in Syria or Iraq.

As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation?

Given Tehran’s threat to scale up its enrichment efforts, how far might its nuclear program go post-JCPOA, and what lessons might it draw from U.S. discussions with Pyongyang?

Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule.

Hardliners will take comfort in the government's latest nuclear warnings to Washington, but the rhetoric could backfire if more Iranians come to believe that costly new projects hold little economic benefit for them.

Tehran seems to believe that President Trump will kill the deal next month, so it may start prepping its dormant nuclear facilities, sowing division between U.S. allies, or courting other global powers.

If the protests intensify, President Rouhani may be hard pressed to unravel his greatest dilemma: how to honor his economic and reform promises while preserving his decades-long commitment to the regime's core principles.

Omer Carmi, a lead researcher with the Israel Defense Forces, analyzes the components of the Iran Threat Network and builds a compelling case for neutralizing harmful Iranian activity in the region and beyond.

Given its miscalculations about withdrawing from the 2004 Paris Accords, Iran will likely refrain from any short-term steps that isolate it or strengthen Washington's case for revoking the JCPOA.

IRGC hardliners have pushed for an aggressive response to U.S. measures, but they will have to convince the Supreme Leader that escalation does not pose too great a risk.