All Policy Analysis by Mehdi Khalaji

Iran's inability to aid Bahraini protestors could reduce its political influence among Shiite Arabs.

Iran has been trying to claim credit for the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt as being inspired by the 1979 Islamic revolution, yet the Syrian case has created the need for Iran to formulate a new narrative to explain why a genuine popular uprising was threatening its closest Arab ally.

Within the Islamic Republic of Iran, both the democratic movement and internal conflict raise questions about the regime's stability. Should Ayatollah Ali Khamenei die -- or become unable to carry out his position as supreme leader -- the regime's stability rests on the peaceful transition of power.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has now made the mistake that all Iranian presidents have made: he has challenged the authority of the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and he is doomed to fail.