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All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson
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Brief Analysis
Israel Plans to Hike Gas Output Despite Hezbollah Threats
The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.
Jul 1, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
Jun 14, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.
Jun 10, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Kuwaiti Reset?
The new emir’s suspension of parliament, followed by the appointment of a prime minister and crown prince, suggests a different direction for the oil-rich Gulf state.
Jun 7, 2024
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Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Agency Chief Visits Iran: Expectations and Next Steps
Given the latest uptick in hostilities between Iran and Israel and their reported threats against nuclear facilities, the visit will likely emphasize diplomacy.
May 3, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Gloss to Pakistan’s Diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia
Multiple high-level visits suggest economic desperation mixed with strategic—and possibly nuclear—opportunism.
Apr 25, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israeli Gas Field Near Lebanon Starts Production
The floating storage vessel anchored above the offshore field could be a tempting target for Hezbollah.
Mar 4, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Three experts address the thorny strategic questions arising from attacks on global shipping by the Yemen-based group.
Feb 6, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Michael Knights
Noam Raydan
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Shock Cut in Planned Oil Expansion
The decision could lead to further spending reductions in the kingdom.
Feb 5, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Why Oil Prices Aren’t Spiking
Prices are set by multiple factors in today’s oil markets, so predicting shocks based on Middle East crises is not a sure bet.
Jan 22, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Will the U.S.-British Strikes Stop the Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?
The effectiveness of the joint operation is not year clear, but either way it almost certainly wasn’t the concluding episode in Iran’s long-running game of Gulf proxy warfare.
Jan 12, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran Increases Output of Near Bomb-Grade Nuclear Material
The IAEA’s new uranium revelations are amplifying concerns about a potential multifront war between Israel and Iran.
Dec 27, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Emir Nawaf’s Passing and the Future Leadership of Kuwait
Geographic location and oil wealth give the sheikhdom significance far exceeding its size and population.
Dec 18, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Signals Delays for Some Vision 2030 Plans
Squeezed by weak oil prices, Riyadh is acknowledging that some of its economic plans are over-ambitious.
Dec 14, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Oil Purchase Is a Mere Drop in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Amid ongoing uncertainty over Gulf shipping attacks and Russian oil diplomacy, the reserve is still running lower than it should.
Dec 12, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Iran-Backed Attacks on Ships in the Red Sea Underscore a U.S. Dilemma
Given the lack of a decisive U.S. response, further clashes will likely arise in strategically crucial waterways whenever Tehran sees fit to nudge the Houthis.
Dec 4, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Rising Temperatures at Dubai’s COP28 Meeting
The conference agenda extends well beyond climate issues, with implications for regional rivalries, U.S.-Emirati relations, and Israeli wartime diplomacy.
Nov 30, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Houthi Ship Seizure, OPEC+ Meeting, and COP28 Plans Could Spike Oil Prices
As Iran-backed proxies continue targeting Israeli and U.S. interests, mounting public anger in the Gulf states might spur leaders to announce production cuts at this week’s cartel meeting.
Nov 20, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israeli Offshore Gas Platform Near Gaza Resumes Production
The post-attack shutdown of the Tamar gas field had highlighted the vulnerability of Israel’s energy infrastructure.
Nov 15, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Qatar’s Relations with Washington and Israel Are Being Tested
The Gulf state is using its close relationship with Hamas to help secure the release of Gaza hostages, but these same relations could wind up damaging its political and military ties with the United States.
Oct 24, 2023
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Simon Henderson
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