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All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson
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Articles & Testimony
What’s Behind Biden’s Not-So-Green Request for More Oil?
The announcement raises several awkward geopolitical questions, but market factors may ultimately make U.S. pressure moot.
Aug 12, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?
The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.
Aug 2, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israel-UAE Pipeline Deal Delayed by Environmental Concerns
A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.
Jul 26, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump
Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.
Jul 19, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Expect Political Consequences from Higher Oil Prices During the Summer Driving Season
Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.
Jul 8, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Visit to Washington Will Have a Thorny Agenda
Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.
Jul 6, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Worst of COVID-19 May Be Over, But It’s Still a Factor in the Price of Oil
The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.
Jun 30, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?
Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.
Jun 25, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage
News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.
Jun 1, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Wondering Why Gas Costs So Much? Blame Consumer Demands and the Oil Market
A post-oil future isn’t without risks, whether for Middle Eastern producers or Western economies still tied to hydrocarbons in myriad ways.
May 28, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Bahrain’s Interlocking Regional and Domestic Tensions
Manama is still grappling with the complex challenge of developing ties with Israel while coping with homegrown Shia militancy.
May 10, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Lines in the Sea: The Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Dispute
Benefitting from offshore natural gas reserves should be a win-win situation, but in this case the players may turn it into a zero-sum game.
May 3, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
UAE Wealth Fund to Buy Share of Israeli Gas Field
If the $1.1 billion deal goes ahead, it will strengthen Abu Dhabi’s claim to be a player in the East Mediterranean.
Apr 27, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Iran Moves Closer to a Diplomatic Breakthrough That May Upset Israel
A bevy of Israeli security officials will soon visit Washington against a backdrop of Vienna talks, Saudi engagement with Tehran, and continued nuclear moves.
Apr 22, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
‘Suspicious’ Blackout at Iranian Nuclear Site Almost Certain to Prompt Retaliation
Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.
Apr 12, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Breakout: What It Is and How to Calculate It
With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.
Mar 24, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Attack on Saudi Oil Facility Means New Headache for Biden
One obvious remedy involves asking Riyadh to end its production cutback, but any such request could be complicated by the administration’s recent friction with the crown prince.
Mar 8, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
For Better or Worse: Which Way Will US-Saudi Relations Go Under Biden?
The new administration seems to regard Khashoggi’s death as merely the best known of the crown prince’s sins, but it is hard to see an alternative successor in the House of Saud.
Feb 26, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israel Secures Egyptian Gas Export Route
A rare visit by an Egyptian cabinet official marks a significant upgrade in bilateral energy ties, though questions remain about Palestinian, Gulf, and environmental issues.
Feb 23, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Blinken Picks Up the Phone to Firm Up Alliances—Except with Most Gulf Countries
The change of administrations and the realities of COVID-era diplomacy may give Gulf leaders a sense that they are being kept at a distance on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
Feb 5, 2021
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Simon Henderson
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