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Fikra Forum
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Policy Analysis
All Policy Analysis by Oula A. Alrifai
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In-Depth Reports
Seasoned Skeptics
Why Syrian Kurds Have Resisted Political Islam
The historic role of Sufism, an inclination toward the secular left, and recent repression under extremists have all driven the Kurds away from religiously informed ideology.
Dec 13, 2021
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Sirwan Kajjo
Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Russia and Iran Are Supporting Assad’s Latest Attack on Deraa
The actions of Moscow and Tehran’s local forces say much about each country’s true intentions in the area, and the most immediate result could be more ethnic cleansing.
Aug 5, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Iran and Russia Are Exploiting America’s Absence in Northeast Syria
By redeploying their military and proxy forces, boosting Assad’s political campaigns, and resorting to various local intimidation tactics, the two countries are increasingly working together on establishing full control in Deir al-Zour.
Jul 29, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Ali Alleile
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Protests in Daraa, Syria Undermine Assad's Narrative of Victory
Recent protests in Daraa demonstrate that Assad’s hold over regime-controlled areas are not as total as they appear.
Apr 2, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Long Game in Syria
Three scholars explore the stunning breadth of Iranian dominance over Damascus and what this means for any U.S. plans to foster stability in Syria or reopen negotiations with Tehran.
Mar 29, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Nakissa Jahanbani
Mehdi Khalaji
In-Depth Reports
In the Service of Ideology:
Iran's Religious and Socioeconomic Activities in Syria
The dalliance between the Assad family and Iran’s Shia clerics began in the 1970s. Back then, before the Islamic Revolution, the Syrian leader held leverage. Now the tables have been turned.
Mar 14, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
What We Ignore, We Empower: Five Decades of Despair Under the Assad Regime
A Syrian scholar and expatriate lays out the legacy of terror under the Assads and urges the Biden administration to prioritize the country’s sundry crises.
Spring 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Assad Is Giving Biden Every Reason to Prioritize Syria
Even if the growing regional and geopolitical stakes were not sufficient on their own, the regime’s domestic negligence, illegitimacy, and criminality provide ample reason to shake up Washington’s approach.
Mar 3, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Russian-Iranian Tensions in Deir al-Zour
To prevent the two rivals from expanding their influence in east Syria, the coalition needs to exploit their simmering disunity, empower its partners on the ground, and establish stronger ties with select tribal and community leaders.
Sep 4, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Ali Alleile
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Is Regime Collapse on Syria's Horizon? Evaluating Assad's Grip on Power
A State Department official explains the latest sanctions against entities that do business with Assad, while two experts assess the regime’s current status and its susceptibility to foreign pressure.
Jun 22, 2020
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Joel Rayburn
Oula A. Alrifai
Sam Dagher
Brief Analysis
Don’t Overthink the Assad-Makhlouf Feud
The Syrian leader’s dramatic war of words with his massively wealthy cousin may seem like a major fracture inside the regime, but the dynamics of past and present family disputes paint a different picture.
May 22, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Three Governments Confront the Coronavirus
The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.
Apr 1, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Help Ease Idlib’s Catastrophe
Washington needs to cooperate with Europe on forcing Damascus into serious political negotiations, help Turkey create a no-fly zone, and stop Russia and China from using their veto power at the UN.
Mar 14, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Economic Crisis Sparks Rare Protests in Regime Territory
Besides highlighting Assad’s financial mismanagement, the recent unrest gives the international community a genuine opportunity to push for transition while bolstering the more prosperous local administration in the northeast.
Jan 31, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
Assad Is Growing Stronger Under Trump’s Nonexistent Syria Policy
The Caesar Act will not put an end to the Syrian catastrophe so long as Washington keeps ceding political and military leverage to adversaries who do not care about human rights.
Dec 29, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Nov 8, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What Is Iran Up To in Deir al-Zour?
Tehran and its proxies have been exerting hard and soft power in northeast Syria, combining military consolidation with economic, social, and religious outreach in order to cement their long-term influence.
Oct 10, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
The ‘Rebuild Syria’ Exhibition: Iranian Influence and U.S. Sanctions
This year’s show provides a window into Tehran’s strategy for cementing its soft power, and may point to potential sanctions violations by companies from U.S. partner countries.
Sep 17, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
To Save Syria, Assad Must Step Down
At this current juncture there is not a viable path for either Syrian rebel forces nor for the opposition to win the war on their own. Saving Syria requires international cooperation by executing an effective plan to end the crisis. The best way forward is for the United States to
Dec 26, 2017
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Oula A. Alrifai
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