All Policy Analysis by Alan Makovsky

Pleased with his decision to throw in Turkey's lot with the winning U.S.-led coalition against Saddam Hussein, Turkish President Turgut Ozal declared at a 1991 post-Gulf War press conference that Turkey "should leave its former passive and hesitant policies and engage in an active foreign policy."1 Ozal's decision to back

In making two strongly nationalist parties the top vote-getters in this weekend's elections, Turks showed the assertiveness of a nation that feels itself emerging as a regional power and the defensiveness of one still embittered by Western Europe's rejection. The secular establishment can take only slight solace in the decline

The most likely outcome of the elections will be a three- or four-party, right-left, secular coalition government under the incumbent prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, who will probably receive the most votes among secularists. Whatever the results, the half-civilian, half-military National Security Council will continue to determine the major lines of

A leading Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress (INC), recently announced that its political convention will meet in Washington in late April. Despite the U.S. administration's new policy calling for an end to the Iraqi regime, its approach to the Iraqi opposition has thus far been cautious and limited

The arrest of Abdullah Ocalan is a U.S. victory in the global war against terrorism; for elated Turks, it is the equivalent of Israel's 1976 Entebbe rescue operation or the United Kingdom's 1982 Falklands victory -- a thrilling national triumph after a long period of frustration. Now, having supplied crucial

Seemingly on the verge of hostilities with Turkey in mid-October 1998, President Hafez Assad of Syria did what almost nobody expected. He backed down, and quickly. Assad pledged to meet most -- though not all -- Turkish demands that he end support for the Turkish-Kurdish separatist group known as the

Twenty years after his last stint as prime minister, 73-year-old Bulent Ecevit once again became Turkey's prime minister yesterday. His minority government is unlikely to accomplish much, other than to take the nation to early (but long planned) elections scheduled for April 18. Given traditional difficulties in government formation --

The arrest of Workers' Party of Kurdistan (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan in Italy last week was a rare example of the capture of a major terrorist group leader. In contrast, an Italian court's decision today to release him under a loose form of "house arrest"is widely seen as a prelude

Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action

Turkey's weekend decision to boost diplomatic ties with Saddam Hussein to ambassadorial level highlights widespread regional opposition to an agreement between two long-feuding Iraqi Kurdish leaders signed in Washington earlier this month. The agreement affirms the Iraqi Kurds' desire to avoid further inter-factional fighting and to prevent Saddam's return to

The U.S. cruise missile attacks on the Sudanese chemical weapons precursor plant and the Afghanistan terrorist camps raises questions about the future direction of U.S. policy on several fronts: the emphasis on state linkages to terrorism, the means used to counter proliferation, the role of law enforcement and military force

Early Turkish elections, recently set for April 18, 1999, hold little prospect for change in a longstanding political impasse, yet they raise potential problems for Turkey's domestic and foreign policies -- not least its approach to Greek Cypriot plans to deploy Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles. Meanwhile, the departure of the

Now that a broad consensus has emerged in government circles on the need to use force against Saddam Hussein, Washington should stay the course. It should not be deterred by last-minute Russian or French diplomacy, by inconclusive United Nations debates or-perhaps the biggest obstacle of all-by its own self-doubts. Iraq

The Israeli-Turkish-U.S. trilateral search-and-rescue exercise taking place this week near Israel's Mediterranean coast highlights the thickening network of ties between Washington's two major non-Arab, Middle Eastern allies. A plus for U.S. interests in the region, Israeli-Turkish relations are watched with growing unease in Damascus, Baghdad, and Tehran, on the one

On the heels of the European Union's dismissal of Turkey's membership bid, Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz meets President Clinton at the White House tomorrow at a potentially fateful time for Turkey's relations with the West. Ultimately, Euro-Turkish relations need to be strengthened if Turkey is to be fully integrated

For the past three decades, Turkey's political establishment has equated success in its quest for full acceptance as a Western state with admission to the European Union (EU)-a goal likely to be dealt a severe, if not crippling, blow at an historic EU summit that starts tomorrow. The EU's implicit

The Turkish military was the driving force behind events that led to Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's resignation. Also important, however, were civilian elements of the Turkish establishment, which was acting on all cylinders. The most powerful delegitimation of Erbakan's government was the unprecedented cooperation between rival trade unions and

Having won his parliamentary vote of confidence Saturday by a relatively comfortable margin, Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz has set about the difficult task of governing with his ideologically diffuse but all-secular government. The departure of the Erbakan-Ciller government has eased tensions in Turkey, though questions about the future of

A tense confrontation between the Turkish military and Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's governing Refah Party may come to a head Thursday, when the Turkish cabinet meets to consider a set of uncompromisingly tough pro-secular measures inspired by the military. There is little doubt the military mistrusts Erbakan and wants

The weeks between the Hebron agreement and the first phase of Israel's "further redeployment" in the West Bank have already produced an uncommon still in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, with tourism officials undertaking a joint marketing scheme under the motto: "Peace -- It's a Beautiful Sight to See." In this critical