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All Policy Analysis by Barry Rubin
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Brief Analysis
The Allies and the Baker Trip
Secretary of State James Baker's Middle East trip is designed to firm up and define an anti- Iraq coalition held together by U.S. power, Saudi money, and Egyptian management of inter- Arab politics, while Israeli and Turkish power constrain Iraq. Recently, Syria has been the alignment's weak link, but political
Nov 5, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Egypt and the Gulf Crisis:
Holding the Line against Iraq
The assassination of a major Egyptian political figure, reportedly by Iraqi-backed terrorists, raises questions about Egypt's stability as well as its staying power in opposing Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. One of the main pillars of the anti-Iraq coalition, Egypt is beset by mounting political and economic difficulties. If it
Oct 23, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Measuring Saddam's Arab Support
The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on
Oct 10, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iran: Which Side Is It On?
Of all the states in the Middle East, Iran's policy has been the most confusing and mysterious. Yet a close examination shows that Tehran has followed a consistent, predictable, attitude toward the Gulf crisis. From Tehran's standpoint, the current situation is the obverse of that prevailing during the eight-year Iran-Iraq
Oct 2, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Mood in Baghdad:
Arrogance and Fear
Saddam Hussein's threats to attack Israel or Saudi oil fields if sanctions begin to strangle him must be taken seriously by defenders of those purported targets but are most likely bluffs to forestall the mounting pressure on Iraq and raise his subjects' morale. It is not clear that Iraq has
Sep 24, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Washington Institute Conference:
Perspectives on the Gulf Crisis
The Fifth Annual Policy Conference of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, held September 14-16, brought out a number of new ideas and perspectives on the Persian Gulf crisis. These included important points about administration strategy, the attitudes of Arab states and Israel, the time frame for various tactics
Sep 18, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Baker's Damascus Trip:
Is Syria America's New Iraq?
It is surprising how few Arabs and Arab states are supporting Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. As Secretary of State James Baker's visit to Damascus on Thursday shows, the anti-Iraq coalition includes the Arab world's three other most important powers: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. This triumverate marks the Arab world's
Sep 11, 1990
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Meeting in Amman:
The Perils of Negotiation
As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible
Aug 30, 1990
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Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
Inside the PLO:
Officials, Notables, and Revolutionaries
Executive Summary Faced with pressure from the uprising leadership in the territories, by gains of rival Islamic and leftist groups and by Jordan's disengagement from the West Bank, Yasser Arafat is seeking approval for a Palestinian declaration of independence at the Algiers PNC meeting. But will the PLO actually achieve
Dec 1, 1989
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Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
The PLO's New Policy:
Evolution until Victory?
The PLO's steps toward recognizing Israel, rejecting terrorism, and advocating a two-state solution are not a public relations ploy. But, by the same token, the PLO has not been transformed overnight. As a result, U.S. policy toward the PLO should be geared toward pressuring and maneuvering the organization into completing
Jun 1, 1989
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Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
The PLO:
A Declaration of Independence?
Faced with pressure from the uprising leadership in the territories, by gains of rival Islamic and leftist groups and by Jordan's disengagement from the West Bank, Yasser Arafat is seeking approval for a Palestinian declaration of independence at the Algiers PNC meeting. But will the PLO actually achieve independence from
Nov 1, 1988
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Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
The PLO's Intractable Foreign Policy
Executive Summary In 1985, the Middle East peace process came to depend upon the transformation of the PLO into a suitable partner for King Hussein in negotiations with Israel. Throughout the year, however, the PLO proved itself yet again both unwilling and incapable of playing that role. In victory or
Dec 1, 1985
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Barry Rubin
Pagination
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