Iraqi Muqawama Too Scared to Commemorate Soleimani and Muhandis Fully
Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias in Iraq displayed caution in how they commemorated the sixth anniversary of the January 3, 2020 killings, an anniversary that fell just 17 days short of the Inauguration of a second Trump administration
Since the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ suffered serious setbacks in the region, the narrative of the Iraqi muqawama militias seems to have shifted to a less aggressive one. Ali Fadhlullah, a prolific muqawama commentator declared on al-Janub TV owned by Saraya al-Jihad (PMF brigade 14) that he prefers "to see U.S. forces to stay in Iraq… If the Americans leave [Iraq]… they will put political and international pressures on you. Currently they are being kind to you and trying to protect you, not because they like you, because their interests demand it…” (Figure 1).
Fadhlullah is not a militia badge holder, per se, but belongs to a group of commentators who serve as surrogates for the militia, amplifying their talking points. His remarks suggest that at least part of the muqawama militia prefers the United States to remain in Iraq to "protect" them.
KH treads carefully
The change in tone is also evident in militia formal statements which lack their usual threatening language. On January 3, the anniversary of the targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) founder, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, KH issued a meek statement that lacked any threats or escalatory language. Instead, it called on the Iraqi government “to take the necessary measures against anyone who dares to insult the status of the martyrs or undermine their sacrifices…” (Figure 2)
Compare this to KH’s statement issued last year, also commemorating Soleimani and Muhandis, which featured much fierier rhetoric. It declared, “Today, the muqawama is beginning to demolish the enemies’ thrones and their fragile walls, making them taste the fire they intended to unleash on the region… The muqawama has returned today to deliver painful blows to the remnants of the occupation, who believed that relocating their bases to certain areas of Iraq would shield them from harm…” (Figure 3).
KSS also tones down the threats
Similarly, the most recent speech by Abu Alaa al-Walaie, leader of Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada (KSS), on January 4 lacked the typically escalatory rhetoric. Instead, he stated, “The situation in the region requires us to be prepared, take precautions, and remain vigilant while continuing to monitor events closely” (Figure 4).
This contrasts sharply with his remarks in December 2021, when Abu Alaa announced a plan to recruit thousands of fighters in preparation for “the hour of determination and the big battle” and the “decisive and historic confrontation with the American occupation on 12/31/2021 after 12:00 [midnight].” At the time, muqawama media was saturated with discussions about expelling U.S. forces by the anniversary of the killings of Soleimani and Muhandis on January 3, 2022.
Nujaba says it best by saying nothing at all
Curiously, Harakat al-Nujaba (HaN) refrained from issuing any statements to commemorate the anniversary of Soleimani and Muhandis. This unusual decision appears to stem from HaN's reluctance to issue a statement with soft language. By simply saying nothing, HaN did not antagonize the Americans (which is probably being discouraged by Iran and Iraqi muqawama players) but also did not signal fear with a cautious statement. Their silence is intended to signal simmering ill will.
It appears that the muqawama militias are convinced they will come under attack and are eager to avoid exacerbating the situation, particularly in light of the incoming Trump administration. This concern was explicitly voiced by Abu Azrael, a commander of Kataib al-Imam Ali, during one of his characteristic live rants, when he stated, “We and our leaders will be subject to assassinations.” (Figure 5).
In this Iraqi election year, the muqawama may turn their efforts squarely on domestic political threats. These are the kinds of targets the muqawama likes the best: the kind that mostly don't shoot back, such as unarmed civil society campaigners and media persons. These crimes should be energetically exposed. We should expect the muqawama to begin a huddling-together process ahead of elections, shepherded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) into a slightly more cohesive group. Muqawama leaders may be easy to drive into hiding (often in Iran) as and when Israel or the United States appears to be on the verge of targeting them.