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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Four U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups Rush to Support Judge Faeq Zaidan
Iran-backed militias were quick to defend the judge after he was accused of being a tool for Iranian influence.
Jul 1, 2024
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Amir al-Kaabi
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Addressing the Inequality and Despair Driving Kurdish Migration to Europe
Only by working to address internal issues can the KRI hope to stem the tide of both irregular migration and the loss of its most valuable human capital.
Jul 1, 2024
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Ruwayda Mustafah
Brief Analysis
Israel Plans to Hike Gas Output Despite Hezbollah Threats
The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.
Jul 1, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba and AAH Argue Over Whether Asaib Is Still a Resistance Player
Asaib Ahl al-Haq cannot seem to decide whether it has detached from anti-U.S. militancy or not, causing other militias to tie themselves in rhetorical knots over the group's public credentials.
Jul 1, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
What If Gaza’s “Day After” Converges with the Day After Abbas?
If the PA leadership collapses under the weight of Israeli pressure and West Bank deterioration, the result could be a destabilizing reset in the Palestinian arena and a postwar void in Gaza.
Jul 1, 2024
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Neomi Neumann
Brief Analysis
Dueling Summits Show the Need to Enlist Arab Support on Ukraine
Key Middle East actors tend to distrust the U.S. narrative about the war and conclude they can reap better economic benefits from Russia, so Washington should do more to get them off the sidelines.
Jun 28, 2024
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Carrier Gap Increases the Red Sea’s Vulnerability to Houthi Attacks
To fill the capabilities gap between carrier groups and prepare for potential Houthi escalation in the next few weeks, the United States and its partners need to implement stopgap measures and, ideally, surge more military assets into the region temporarily.
Jun 28, 2024
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Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
Jun 27, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Saraya Awliya al-Dam Finds New Mission in Israel Attacks
The brand appears to have been reactivated by its parent organization, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, to claim certain attacks on Israel during the Gaza war.
Jun 27, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
In-Depth Reports
Evaluating UNRWA After the Colonna Report
The obvious nature of multiple recommendations points to scandalous mismanagement at the UN aid agency over decades.
Jun 27, 2024
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James G. Lindsay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Ship Attacks Pose a Longer-Term Challenge to Regional Security and Trade Plans
The immediate effects of the Houthi antishipping campaign are measurably serious, but the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other partners also need to prepare for the emboldened group to exert its newfound leverage in other ways beyond the Gaza war.
Jun 26, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
Behind the US Plan to Prevent an All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War
An American-led diplomatic initiative to separate their forces at the border appears to be falling short, and time is running out.
Jun 25, 2024
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The NATO Summit Is Another Chance to Counter Russia in the “South”
The alliance has already been shifting toward greater engagement with the Middle East and Africa, but various maritime and infrastructure threats require more urgent attention, as does the broader problem of countering Moscow’s narrative.
Jun 25, 2024
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Why Is Hamas’ Popularity Soaring Among Palestinians in the West Bank?
The numbers reflect backlash against the Palestinian Authority, which many see as corrupt, illegitimate, and unable to provide a path toward independence—though the alternative would be worse.
Jun 24, 2024
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Moran Stern
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sadr’s Rebranded Political Movement: The Old, the New, and a Reality Check
Given the complicated baggage that Sadr brings into Iraq’s political game, his re-entry into formal politics after a years-long hiatus will likely destabilize the internal Shia political landscape.
Jun 24, 2024
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Mohammed Salih
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia
Without a sea change, U.S. and European soft power will continue to erode in Tunisia at a moment of increasing crisis for the country.
Jun 24, 2024
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Oussama Boudhrioua
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences
If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 21, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Farzin Nadimi
David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Has the West Learned to Work with Tunisia?
Despite the country’s authoritarian turn and flirtation with Russia and China, Western officials are unwilling to risk valuable cooperation on immigration and security issues.
Jun 21, 2024
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Sabina Henneberg
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Politics of Real Estate in the Kurdish Region of Iraq
With ruling parties, companies, and mainstream media aligned against them, activists and environmentalists face a formidable challenge in curbing the exploitation of nature and corporate greed.
Jun 20, 2024
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Renwar Najm
Brief Analysis
Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts
Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.
Jun 20, 2024
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Ehud Yaari
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