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Brief Analysis
How Washington Can Salvage Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service
CTS is the most successful U.S. partner force in Iraq, which is why Iran-backed terrorist groups are trying to penetrate and corrupt it.
Dec 3, 2024
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo
The former jihadist affiliate has changed tremendously in the past few years, and understanding this new reality is crucial to identifying how its current offensive might unfold.
Dec 3, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How Syria’s ‘Diversity-Friendly’ Jihadists Plan on Building a State
As the group consolidates control in newly seized Aleppo, its leader is seeking to allay fears among minorities, pro-Assad residents, and skeptical Western officials alike.
Dec 3, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How to End the War in Gaza: Lessons from Lebanon
The Lebanon deal shows how Washington and Israel can use their newly gained leverage to resolve the Palestinian crisis.
Dec 2, 2024
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Stuart Eizenstat
Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
How the Trump Factor Pushed Israel Towards Lebanon Ceasefire
The Biden White House brokered the deal, but Trump’s return is significantly influencing Binyamin Netanyahu’s actions.
Dec 1, 2024
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Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Population Census in Iraq: A Step Towards Future Development or Imminent Political Conflict?
Last week’s population census in Iraq became the country's first in almost three decades.
Nov 28, 2024
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Azhar Al-Rubaie
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia List of U.S. “Greatest Hits” Gives Insight Into Attack Cell Structure
A poster of thirty-six militia “martyrs” provides useful data about who was killed by U.S. forces at specific times and places.
Nov 26, 2024
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Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions
Iran-backed groups were already powering down for weeks before Israel delivered a stark warning on November 18, after which attacks dropped off almost entirely.
Nov 26, 2024
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran
Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.
Nov 21, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
James E. Shepard
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Winds of Change: Ankara’s Subtle Shifts Towards Reconciliation with Kurdish Elements in Turkey
Signs that Ankara is interested in a potential reconciliation with the PKK could lead an end to a decades-long conflict and have ripple effects across the region, although numerous obstacles remain.
Nov 20, 2024
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Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Nineveh’s Municipal Council Reveals about the Iran-Turkey Power Struggle in Iraq
The ongoing tensions in Nineveh's municipal council highlight how regional powers vie for influence in Iraq's local elections.
Nov 20, 2024
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Filip Sommer
Rebwar Rauf Salih
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Anti-Israel Attacks by Iraq-Based Group with Implied Saudi Membership
A group with a Saudi-linked name has claimed six attacks on Israel, but they were probably launched from Iraq using Kataib Hezbollah and/or Houthi drone teams.
Nov 19, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Unveil SAD Aircraft Carrier
Saraya Awliya al-Dam launched a Shahed drone from a small boat in an apparent effort to draw attention by demonstrating a rudimentary new capability.
Nov 19, 2024
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Addressing Entities of Particular Concern: Non-State Actors and Egregious Violations of Religious Freedom
A terrorism expert assesses how Washington and its partners can best counter—and in some cases engage—jihadist actors in Afghanistan and the Sahel amid growing limitations on U.S. influence in such locales.
Nov 19, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Semiconductors, AI, and the Gulf:
Policy Considerations for the United States
In seeking to bolster partnerships and simultaneously protect U.S. technology, officials will need to navigate export options ranging from permissive to restrictive.
Nov 18, 2024
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Elizabeth Dent
Grant Rumley
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Directorate of Education, al-Hashd al-Shabi (DEHS)
An Iraqi militia directorate that has grown into a major state-funded educational foundation, arranging university education for students tied to the PMF and sending some to Iran on scholarships paid by Tehran.
Nov 18, 2024
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Sary Mumayiz
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Articles & Testimony
3 Unanswered Questions That Will Shape Trump’s Middle East Policy
The nascent administration needs to clarify its stances on preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout, investing in Arab-Israel military cooperation, and responding to potential West Bank annexations.
Nov 16, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?
Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.
Nov 15, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy
The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.
Nov 14, 2024
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Richard Nephew
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