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Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be
By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.
Feb 11, 2021
◆
Omer Carmi
Video
Brief Analysis
New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar
The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,
Feb 10, 2021
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Gideon Saar
Brief Analysis
How to Use Militia Spotlight
Militia Spotlight provides timely, high-quality evidence, analysis and contextualization of militia activities in Iraq and Syria, both within government agencies and outside them.
Feb 10, 2021
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Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria
By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.
Feb 10, 2021
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Round Four: New and Old Dynamics
It is far from certain that the next election will stabilize Israeli politics, and even if it does, the forces taking shape could create challenging peace math for the Biden administration.
Feb 9, 2021
◆
David Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism
Even as U.S. policymakers must stay focused on the Assad regime’s culpability, they also face a complex web of power dynamics in which Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and other actors are attempting to secure their various interests.
Feb 8, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments
By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.
Feb 8, 2021
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Mehdi Khalaji
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Algeria’s Political Crisis: An Ongoing Vicious Cycle
Algeria's divided political system has limited time to make critical reforms.
Feb 5, 2021
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Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Articles & Testimony
Blinken Picks Up the Phone to Firm Up Alliances—Except with Most Gulf Countries
The change of administrations and the realities of COVID-era diplomacy may give Gulf leaders a sense that they are being kept at a distance on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
Feb 5, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
How the United States Should View Iraq’s Shrine Militias
Despite welcoming the idea of separating the nationalist “shrine units” from the Iran-leaning Popular Mobilization Forces, Washington should lighten its touch on the issue.
Feb 5, 2021
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Mehdi Khalaji
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Will Qatar’s Relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood Change after Gulf Reconciliation?
Qatar must adequately manage its ties to the Brotherhood if it wants to ensure sustainable Gulf ties.
Feb 3, 2021
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Omran Salman
In-Depth Reports
Seizing Opportunities and Strengthening Alliances in Northwest Africa:
Ideas for Policy Toward Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia
Modest investments of U.S. diplomatic capital, economic aid, and security assistance can help these three countries and advance American interests.
Feb 3, 2021
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Robert Satloff
Sarah Feuer
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Transition 2021
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy Toward Arab States, Palestinians, and Israel: Ideas and Approaches for the Biden Administration
Officials, business leaders, and experts explore the economic, political, and human impact of regional normalization efforts, including their potential to reinvigorate peacemaking with the Palestinians.
Feb 3, 2021
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Yousef Al Otaiba
Samer Khoury
Fleur Hassan-Nahoum
David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Islamic State Messaging on Counter-espionage Operations
ISIS publications reveal the geographic location and concentration of its counter-espionage operations.
Feb 2, 2021
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Pasar Sherko
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Riyadh Mends Fences with Doha as it Braces for the Biden Administration
Qatar could serve as a valuable intermediary between Saudi Arabia and a Democratic White House.
Feb 1, 2021
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Suleiman Nimr
Articles & Testimony
The Arab Spring Then and Now, Through the Prism of Public Opinion
A “survey of surveys” shows that from an intelligence and policy point of view, Arab public opinion is measurable and meaningful—assuming regional governments and Washington are paying proper attention to it.
Winter 2021
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David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics
Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.
Jan 29, 2021
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Tunisians of the Iraq Jihad and How That Set the Stage for the Syrian Jihad
The disproportionate role of Tunisians in both campaigns can be traced to a wide array of factors, including travel routes, prison experiences, battlefield leadership, and propaganda patterns back home.
Jan 29, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light
The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.
Jan 28, 2021
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Assaf Orion
Mark Montgomery
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