Policy Analysis

On December 16, Mitchell D. Silber, NYPD Director of Intelligence Analysis, addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute to discuss his new book, The Al Qaeda Factor (University of Pennsylvania Press, 2011). Silber examines sixteen Al-Qaeda-associated attacks launched against Western interests since 1993 and identifies potential points of vulnerability

The "Carnation Revolution" suggests democracy can take root in the most unexpected places if the necessary outside support is provided.

Syria's leader is fast losing allies, who seem to know the regime's end is near.

The Middle East begins 2012 much as it began 1949, 1968, and 1980: confident only that uncertainty is the new norm.

To be more effective, U.S. policy intended to encourage reform in Bahrain should be part of a common approach with allies, especially Britain.

The Brotherhood's efforts to project itself as a responsible actor in Egypt do not align with the inflammatory views freely expressed by its members.

Without external intercession, the violence in Syria is likely to escalate, with destabilizing consequences for its neighbors, particularly Lebanon and Iraq.

In Washington, concern is mounting that Iran's potential for troublemaking will now be countered by Saudi actions, which may escalate rather than quiet regional tensions.

The new financial sanctions against Iran are significant, although key U.S. allies will need to do more to potentially impact the regime's nuclear program decisionmaking.

In its present form, VOA's Persian service is a waste of U.S. tax dollars.

The Salafist view of equality in Egypt is clear: so long as we all live by sharia, we're all equal. Eric Trager reports from Giza.

Washington and Baghdad should begin laying the groundwork for a real strategic relationship that assuages Maliki's insecurities while emphasizing U.S. red lines on Iran, human rights, and other issues.

In the coming months, the new Tunisian government will need to begin the process of containing Salafism alongside the tasks of writing the new constitution and reviving the economy.

Privately discussing U.S. concerns about military action against Iran is both responsible and necessary. Musing upon them publicly, however, is a strategic error.

The Barbara Walters interview with Bashar al-Assad underscores how completely he has lost his grip on the reality of the violence in his country.

Among all the countries experiencing Arab Spring protests, Syria is uniquely positioned to fall under Turkish influence once its dictator is toppled.

Two heroes of the campaign for freedom and human rights in the Middle East -- Natan Sharansky of Israel and Saad Eddin Ibrahim of Egypt -- jointly received the Washington Institute's Scholar-Statesman Award at a benefit dinner in Manhattan on December 5, 2011.

With only a few months of preparation and a rumored cache of Saudi funding, Egypt's even more extreme Salafist Nour Party is giving the Muslim Brotherhood a run for its money.

Watch a senior Treasury Department official's discussion of his department's response to the Middle East revolutions of 2011.

Although the Arab League's new sanctions on the Asad regime are welcome, they are unlikely to result in real transformation within the organization.